On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Dec 02 21:35. 2 comments.

On Wednesday, FT Alphaville received the following press release from investment research firm Trimtabs regarding the veracity of official US job numbers (our emphasis):
TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000, More…
On Wednesday, FT Alphaville received the following press release from investment research firm Trimtabs regarding the veracity of official US job numbers (our emphasis):
TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000, Jobs in November Wages and Salaries Falling, Not Flat as Reported by Bureau of Economic AnalysisSausalito, CA — December 2, 2009 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November, the fifteenth consecutive month job losses exceeded 250,000. In the past 12 months, job losses totaled 5.8 million, the second-highest 12-month total since 1970. “The unemployment rate could easily hit 11% by early next year,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. “Employers are still slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month even though the government is spending tens of billions of dollars per month on stimulus programs.” TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs’ estimates have been more accurate than the initial estimates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “At this point in the economic cycle, the private sector should be taking over from the government, but that is simply not happening,” said Biderman. “Not only is the economy not creating jobs, it is still shedding one million jobs every three to four months.”In a research note, TrimTabs explained that wages and salaries are continuing to drop sequentially. TrimTabs estimates based on daily income tax deposits that wages and salaries fell 4.6% year-over-year in October and 5.3% year-over-year in November. Year-over-year declines in wages and salaries have not moderated even though year-over-year comparisons have become much easier since September.Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that wages and salaries in October were flat sequentially and down only 3.6% year-over-year. “The BEA is overstating wages and salaries because it is using survey data that is four to six months old to estimate current wages and salaries,” said Biderman. “American consumers are in far worse shape than the BEA’s data indicates.”
Now, because Trimtabs made such a point of criticising US government methodology, we thought — in the interests of objectivity — we should ask for their own track record before posting their findings.
They willingly obliged, of course:
And, all in all, we think they’ve done pretty well.
Plus, it’s worth remembering the official figures do keep being getting revised on a monthly basis. In fact, according to TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman, the final number is only ever confirmed up to a year after the preliminary release.
Which means the margin of error on TrimTabs’ part could even improve from here.

Related links:
On misreading non-farm payroll data - FT Alphaville
The problem with non-farm payroll numbers - FT Alphaville