Hedge Funds Eye Japan, China, Australia for Distressed Assets

Hedge funds seeking distressed assets in Asia may find the best opportunities in Japan, China and Australia next year as banks sell soured loans, and small and medium-sized businesses struggle to attract funding.

Japan, China and Australia form the bulk of the $1 trillion of corporate debt that is distressed or stressed in Asia as banks balk at lending to smaller companies and sell non- performing loans,Robert Appleby, chief investment officer at ADM Capital, said at a conference in Hong Kong yesterday.

“You’re finding financial obligations mounting up for companies across Asia looking for that refinancing, but not being given access to capital markets or the traditional bank loan markets,” Hong Kong-based Appleby said. “That bump to me is going to be a very exciting time for anyone left standing in the distressed market.”

Asia-focused event-driven funds gained 6.6 percent this year through September, while those investing in distressed debt rose 10.5 percent, among the best-performing strategies in the region, according to Singapore-based research firm Eurekahedge Pte. Bonds are termed distressed when they yield at least 10 percentage points more than similar-maturity government notes.

Event-driven strategies -- which focus on distressed, shareholder activist, merger arbitrage and other special situations -- received most of the assets in the second quarter as investors allocated more than $360 million in new capital to Asian hedge funds, Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. said.

‘Best Opportunities’

Distressed investment opportunities today are different from those following the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, when assets were centered on dollar bonds that were trading at 20 cents to 30 cents on the dollar and structuring companies that had gone bankrupt, Appleby said. ADM Capital, founded in 1996, advises funds that make principal investments in distressed companies.

“It’s a very different profile today,” he said at the Hedge Funds Asia Summit yesterday hosted by Bloomberg Link in Hong Kong. “It’s one of the best opportunities we’ve seen in distressed in Asia.”

That’s luring new entrants: Zais Group LLC, a U.S. asset management firm with $8.6 billion in assets, said this month it plans to raise money for a fund that will invest in Japanese property-related securities including debt.

Zais is expecting an increase in sales of property-related debt as the nation’s banks rush to bolster balance sheets ahead of regulatory changes demanding a bigger capital buffer. The fund plans to invest in high-grade debt owned by Japanese banks trying to avoid refinancing risks as the values of properties tied to the bonds decline.

Japan Prices

Japan’s nationwide commercial land prices fell 4.6 percent last year and residential land values dropped 3.4 percent, a government report showed last month. Commercial prices are 60 percent of what they were in 1991 when they peaked, while residential values are at 35 percent.

Michel Lowy, Hong Kong-based chief executive officer of SC Lowy Financial Services, an investment bank focusing on distressed and illiquid investments in Asia, said consumer finance firms in Japan also present distressed investment opportunities. There may be $20 billion of debt in the nation’s consumer finance industry for sale in the next 12 months, Lowy said.

Takefuji Corp. last month filed for bankruptcy protection, becoming Japan’s biggest casualty of a four-year crackdown on coercive lending to consumers.

There will also be “a ton of opportunities” to invest in real estate and leveraged buyout loans in Australia between 2011 and 2014, said Lowy, who headed Deutsche Bank AG’s Asia-Pacific distressed products group, which he founded in 1999.

KKR Returns

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. this week offered as much as A$1.75 billion ($1.73 billion) for Australian asset manager Perpetual Ltd., marking a return to the nation after the New York-based private-equity firm was involved in bids for at least three companies in 2006.

Private-equity firms pool money from investors to take over companies, financing the purchases mostly with debt, with the intention of selling them later for a profit.

In Australia, lending to businesses shrank 0.6 percent in August from July, the most in 10 months, taking the annual decline to 4 percent, central bank figures showed Sept. 30. That’s even as the nation’s economy outperforms most developed nations as the biggest mining investment boom buoys growth.

“Today, it’s almost become a macro game,” Thomas Holland, head of Asia at Cube Capital Ltd., an alternative investment management firm which manages about $1 billion, said at the conference in Hong Kong yesterday. “If you’re looking at Australian companies, will they be getting bank refinancing, what’s the Fed going to do, what are the government policies?”

Household Lending

Australia’s economic growth may be eroded by local banks’ preference for household lending over business loans, Joseph Healy, National Australia Bank Ltd.’s business banking chief, said last week.

Credit tightening in China, where the government is seeking to avoid asset bubbles, will lead to bridge financing opportunities, Holland said.

China’s central bank temporarily raised reserve requirements for six lenders, three people with knowledge of the matter said last week. Boosting the amount of money banks must hold as reserves will lock up about 200 billion yuan ($30 billion) that otherwise could be used for lending, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated, suggesting the People’s Bank of China is increasing pressure on the country’s biggest banks to rein in credit.

Elsewhere, China, India and Indonesia offer “special situation” investment opportunities as banks aren’t lending to small and medium-capitalized companies, Lowy said.

“The effective opportunity today in distressed is getting good companies that may have a problem and have run into the wall of not being able to pay an obligation,” Appleby said. “They’re technically bankrupt, but they’re still good companies, and getting them back on the rails is easier.”

Asia and Brazil funds catch up

Asian and Latin American cities are catching up with London and New York as locations for the world’s biggest hedge funds.

São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro between them are now home to five hedge fund managers each managing more than $1bn – compared with one 12 months ago, data due to be released on Wednesday will show.

The figures, to be published by Hedge Fund Intelligence, the industry’s biggest database, will underscore the extent to which hedge fund managers are keen to operate closest to the markets generating the biggest returns.Hong Kong and Singapore are now home to 15 billion-dollar fund managers, up from 10 at the beginning of the year.

New York remains in the top spot, home to 124 managers with more than $1bn each. It has slipped fractionally – the city accounts for 46 per cent of assets managed by billion-dollar managers, down from 47 per cent last year.

London, in spite of a spate of big fund closures, has seen its share of assets managed by billion-dollar managers increase, from 14.8 to 15.5 per cent.

The City’s share of the global hedge fund industry has doubled in the past decade but for the past few years its position has remained largely unchanged.

Fund managers say that investors’ growing interest in emerging markets is the main reason funds have moved to new bases. Investors also increasingly prefer to put money with fund managers that have an on-the-ground presence in the regions they trade.

As a result, Hong Kong is fast cementing a position as the industry’s next big centre. While the city is home to 10 fund managers running more than $1bn each, it also hosts a number of high-profile medium-sized funds likely to grow in the coming months.

Start-ups such as Janchor Partners – run by TCI’s former regional head, John Ho – are attracting significant interest. The fund has more than quadrupled in size to $200m in the past nine months.

Industry growth in Brazil is also expected to continue. Established US and UK hedge funds have earmarked the region for expansion.

London-based Brevan Howard, the world’s fourth-largest hedge fund, was recently revealed to be opening a new office in São Paulo, to be headed by the outgoing governor of Brazil’s central bank.

JPMorgan’s Highbridge, the world’s second-largest fund manager, is still in talks toacquire Brazil’s largest hedge fund, Gávea

跟交通网络买“生地”

2010年03月29日 11:52　 本文来源于财新网

在内地，可以跟着大城市内的地铁扩展而建立“生地”储备。至于二三四线城市，便可跟着高 铁走。例如今天在沈阳买入“生地”，可带来无穷财富

【财新网】（专栏作家 曹仁超）3月28日，周日。去年11月开始，港股进入what to buy and what to avoid期，即拣股不炒市，相信牛皮市仍将维持好一段日子。今天投资策略是在动荡不安的股市中找出有价值的股份，在胡言乱语的市场气氛中保持真知灼见。 小投资者大部分时间都是对的，只有在转角市才出错，醒目资金经常追随趋势及利用止蚀盘去局限风险。股神箴言：“投资成功，不在乎你追随群众或和群众对着 干，而是你的分析是否正确。”

　　去年新兴市场股市平均升幅104％、成熟市场股市平均升幅73.3％。不少新兴市场股市同原材料价格有关，故全球工业生产改善前，原材料股必先 行上升。反之，去年8月起成熟市场股市表现超前新兴市场，因为原材料价格（例如CRB指数）进入调整期。

　　资金回流美国支持美汇

　　基金手上现金比重由一年前的6％降至3.6％，代表基金经理已过分乐观，对风险戒心大减。在此水平下，股市如何更上一层楼？毕巴顿认为，美股最 少还有10％上升空间。A股去年8月进入超买区后下调，恒指去年11月进入超买区后下调，今年3月美股进入超买区后又如何？八十年代开始的透过资产升值去 增加债务因而产生的GDP高增长期，到2008年已结束。ISI集团估计，今年第一季美国企业纯利较去年同期升38.8％，第二季升42.4％、第三季升 36.8％、第四季升30％，即2010年全年美国企业纯利可上升36.1％。如上述估计正确，今年美国经济应不会出现双底衰退，但GDP增长率又能否支 持目前美股P/E水平？

　　美国政府通过9400亿美元的医疗改革法案，代表未来财赤无法收窄，不利债市。不过，资金正由新兴市场回流美国，支持美汇上升，因为美国及欧洲 经济在渐渐摆脱衰退。通胀初期人人喜爱，政府透过增加货币供应令股市上升，同时CPI升幅温和，例如2003及04年；然后渐演变成2007年政府为压制 CPI而一再加息，最后引发楼价回落及次按危机，出现2008年大跌市，之后人们又恐怕通缩大于通胀……。2009年3月政府开始再膨胀政策，最早开始再 膨胀政策的是北京政府（2008年11月），A股上升亦最早结束（2009年8月），为时共九个月。美国去年3月批出量化宽松政策，至今年4月1日结束。

　　1980年4月2日（至今刚好三十年），邓小平就内地住房问题发表了讲话，内容如下：

　　一、过去内地实行低工资政策同时推行公房低租金制度，主要是为解决中国人民居住问题。上述公房由政府和单位建造并承担维修保养费用，结果令中国 人均住房由1949年10.8平方米下降到1978年6.7平方米，而且房屋愈来愈残旧。

　　二、从1982至1984年以常州、郑州、沙市、四平作试点把公屋出售，自1985年起再把经验用在其他城市。1986年上海、广州两市首先进 行有偿转让土地法；1987年扩展到深圳、烟台、唐山、蚌埠，并进行“提租补贴”试点（即公房可以加租）。上述经验用作制订1988年七届人大“修改草 案”，明确土地可以有偿转让及物业可用作收租。

　　三、1988至1998年上述修改法案在全国大部分城市推行。1988年2月25日发布国务院十一号文件，包括公房可以加租、出售及实物分配， 实行住房货币化。

　　四、1997年及1998年在朱镕基两次讲话中提出加快住宅建设，使之成为新的经济增长动力和消费热点。许多城市便引入外国不少方法，例如土地 拍卖等，引发全国房地产热潮。

　　不少人以1998年作为中国土地发展的分界线，情况有如1967年前后的香港物业市场。1967年前，香港房地产发展杂乱无章，经一连串改革 后，香港房地产开始规范化。中国房地产由1998年至今已繁荣十二年（2000至03年为回落期），以美国例子，地产繁荣期一般可长达二十二年。换言之， 中国房产仍有十年好景（虽不排除有短期调整）。

　地产商沿西铁建“生地”储备

　　中国房地产是否存在泡沫？诺贝尔经济学得奖者斯蒂格利茨认为，中国和美国不一样，主要是负债并不高。不过，过去一年中国新增房贷是2008年的 五倍，令房地产相关信贷占总信贷20％，已到了警戒水平。

　　日本野村证券董事长氏家纯一认为，在日本泡沫时期，房贷及建筑亦只占银行总贷款25％。资产价格急升同时伴随货币供给扩大和信用扩张，尤其是对 房地产部门的信贷扩张，就是危险讯号。中国应从八十年代日本资产泡沫中吸收经验，以免资产价格本身变动对经济造成破坏。

　　新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长郑永年认为，北京、上海、深圳这些大城市房屋空置率已超过10％的国际警戒线，担心房地产市场泡沫不断扩大，最终 可导致社会不稳定。

　　根据伦敦商学院（London Business School）资料，1955年如投资1000英镑在物业上，到2006年高峰期市值50万英镑。古有明训：有土斯有财。本港地产发展商如新地（016） 早在七十年代初期已投资沙田一带的“生地”（Raw Land），并改为住宅及商场卖出去或收租，然后逐步向新界其他地方购入“生地”……。恒地（012）过去在上水、粉岭一带购入“生地”，然后是将军 澳……。长实（001）买入港灯（006）后，将发电厂土地改为商住用途，买入和黄（013）则把造船厂土地改为商住用途、货仓土地改为商住……。过去十 多年，内房股亦将“生地”改为商住用途而发达。今天本港的巨富，十之八九同地产有关。

　　不过，各位千祈不要乱买“生地”。我老曹不少朋友在1997年前大量买入大屿山土地，以为新机场落成后便发达矣，但至今买入的土地仍是烂地一 片，因为特区政府并无发展大屿山的打算。新地及恒地策略成功，是跟着政府的交通网络去发展，例如狮子山隧道通车之前收购沙田的“生地”；火车电气化之前收 购元朗、上水、粉岭一带的“生地”。恒地在地铁未建至将军澳之前，已先一步在将军澳建立“生地”货源。到今天，地产商又沿西铁一带建立“生地”储备。

　　在内地，亦可以跟着大城市内的地铁扩展而建立“生地”储备。至于二三四线城市发展，便可跟着高铁走。例如今天在沈阳买入“生地”，然后将之建为 商住物业，才是隐蔽的宝藏，一旦打开，可带来无穷财富。

　　去年中国正步入类似2003至06年的美国地产上升潮──即因利率下降而引发的置业狂潮。所不同者：甲、内地买楼先付楼价30％（第二间 50％）；乙、贷款没有证券化，因此银行贷款时小心谨慎；丙、没有职业者无法获贷款。虽然今年政府已严格限制，但楼价并没有因而下调，二三四线城市楼价继 续上升。今年第二季起应否开始收集内房股？我老曹认为，在内地应该不会出现“次按危机”。

　　2000年美国科网股泡沫爆破至今已十年，大部分科网股股价至今仍无法升穿2000年水平；2007年10月金融股开始回落，到2009年3月 跌幅达84％，其后虽然反弹145％，情况仍有如2002年10月至07年10月的科网股，反弹完成后再无力进一步向上。金融股“Beta系数”上升，代 表扩大波幅而非升幅。去年3月至今金融股的良好表现，只是2008年过度超卖后的反弹，而非上升趋势开始。

　　美促人民币升值保护主义作祟

　　2005年美国要求人民币升值30％。2005年8月起中国政府亦让人民币逐步升值，到2007年次按危机前人民币已升值22％，直至出现次按 危机后，人民币才停止升值。2008年11月中央政府推出4万亿元人民币刺激经济方案，令中国股市率先好起来。今天美国又再要求人民币升值，但美国经济真 的可以藉此好起来吗？1985年8月至94年7月日圆升值200％（由250日圆兑1美元升到80日圆），美国贸赤有没有减少？1994年1月朱镕基决定 让人民币与美元汇率并轨，是因为当时人民币没纪律地贬值，并认为人民币升降应以中国利益为首先考虑因素。如美国政府认为人民币值太低而抽25％惩罚性关 税，那过去几年美元兑加元贬值40％，加拿大政府是否亦应向美国征收40％惩罚性关税？过去一年英镑兑美元跌25％，美国为何没有向英国抽25％惩罚性关 税？上述言论百分之二百是保护贸易主义。作为自由贸易主义盟主的美国，更不应以此为胁。

　　美国贸赤年年扩大，是因为美国人有先使未来钱的习惯。中国外贸年年盈余，则是因为中国人有积榖防饥的习惯。此乃民族性使然，同币值高低无关（日 圆由360升至90兑1日圆，日本仍出现大量贸盈）。过去四十年证明了外贸赤字或盈余同该国经济盛衰关系不大（例如日本年年贸盈，但过去二十年经济如 何？）今天对GDP最大影响是消费，一旦消费下降，经济衰退便来临。一个国家只有在经济发展初阶，外贸盈亏才占重要位置。一如1967至87年我老曹的薪 金加减可影响个人消费，但1987年后是否加薪，对本人消费的影响已不重要，主要视乎股市升降（股票投资得失早已超过一年薪金收入）。到1997年后，连 股市升降亦不再重要，因为股票投资只占全部投资30％，其余已分散到房地产、外汇、债券及黄金方面。相信国家亦一样，初期影响经济盛衰是外贸，然后是股市 及房地产，最后是热钱流向。由于美元已取代黄金成为环球各国储备，当美元泛滥时，全球亦不得不跟从。当美国经济出现萎缩，便引发全球金融海啸。

　　去年3月起，美国政府再次推跌美元汇价，目的是希望“重新平衡世界经济”─即中国增加消费、减少出口，美国增加出口、减少消费。然而，今年2月 中国出口大升45.7％，美国财赤则达2209亿美元，为历史上最巨！世界经济不但没有重新平衡，反而进一步走向极端。

　　德国拥有全欧洲最高的储蓄率（约10％），相信亦是全欧洲拥有最低自住物业率（只有43％）的国家之一。在德国置业，银行一般要求先付楼价 50％；反之业主欲加租则十分困难，因此大部分德国年轻人对置业兴趣缺缺。至于美国人，储蓄率在2007年一度跌至零，却十分喜欢置业，在美国置业更一度 出现零首期，一般只须付楼价10％便可。以今天情况看，德国经济较美国正常很多。

　　马来西亚楼市值得留意

　　台湾楼价自1992年开始便停滞不前。2008年因两岸加强互通，令台湾豪宅售价再次上升，相信与台资回流有关（九十年代那些去了长三角一带投 资的台湾资金回流，当时上海楼价只及台北市楼价六分之一，现在上海楼价反较台北市更贵）。2010年约280平米的台湾豪宅，每平方米卖相当于70000 港元，只及香港同级豪宅售价的三分一。大陆人到台湾置业者很少，这次上升靠台湾资金回流，能支持台湾豪宅升势多久？不知道。

　　过去十多年，英语区国家楼价皆上升，只有马来西亚属少数例外，皆因1997年亚洲金融风暴时，马来西亚政府曾下令关闭外汇市场，此决定令外资至 今对马来西亚市场仍存戒心。过去七年华人聚居的地方楼价皆升，马来西亚又是少数例外，理由是华人在马来西亚受到不公平对待，包括考大学或做生意以至考公务 员职位，形成有钱的华人都去新加坡。今年1月，随着东盟国同中国贸易协议生效，能否扭转上述局面？2008年马来西亚出口198.7亿美元，中国占 9.5％，去年出口到中国升89.8％，估计今年进一步急升。马来西亚50％以上人口是二十五岁或以下，属十分年轻的国家，较印度更年轻。信用卡使用率只 有37％（新加坡121％）。今天在马来西亚买楼回报率一般有6厘左右（香港不足3厘），是值得注意的新兴市场。■