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2011年7月13日 星期三

直投常規化成券商「財路」


受外圍拖累,滬深股市周二大跌。滬指收報2754.6,跌1.7%,深成指收12268.19,跌1.4%;成交比周一放大12%;23個行業全線挫跌,木材家具(-2.36%)、地產(-2.33%)和採掘(-2.04%)領跑。

地方債發行首現部分流標,6月份新增貸款6339億元(人民幣.下同),工信部圈定18行業淘汰落後產能企業名單。

券商一直「靠天吃飯」,股市有比較大而持續的上漲行情,收取不菲的交易手續費,日子才會過得比較好;一旦遇到持續的大熊市或牛皮市,交投清淡,手續費亦驟降。

為了讓券商能夠過得好一些,也為了在各方都極度看好、並蜂擁而至的非上市(擬上市)企業股權投資市場,讓券商能夠與各路PE(private equity)和VC(venture capital)正面搶飯食,證監會於2007年允許券商開展直投業務試點,並在四年後的今天正式把券商直投業務轉為常規,無疑讓近數年一直不太好過的券商,多了一條「財路」。

2009年6月IPO重啟後,伴隨着各路神仙在創業板「突擊入股」掙快錢的情形頻頻曝光,券商「保薦+直投」的模式一直廣受抨擊。

有券商報告指出,目前已有41家券商參與的直投項目上市登陸滬深證交所,其中28家券商就是採用「直投+保薦」的經營模式,佔比高達68%,其中直投項目承銷保薦收入總計12.65億元,賬面直投收益總計39.24億元,創造收益51.89億元,直投業務已逐漸成為券商新的盈利增長點。

相比為數眾多的PE和VC,券商在證券與企業研究方面具有天然優勢,又牢牢把持着投行推薦上市這「華山一條路」。故證監會把券商直投「轉正」的決定,肯定對各路PE和VC構成極大的爭奪、甚至殺傷。因為對所有計劃上市、又不得不接受包括來自券商、PE和VC等外來資本、明確要求硬性「入股」的企業而言,唯有券商投行才可透過推薦上市的這種天然優勢,其戰勝或大大領先那些PE和VC等對手。

券商作為掌握中國資本市場核心競爭力的角色,諸多Pre-IPO企業更希望入得券商直投部門的法眼。

直投業務作為券商新業務模式之一,受到證監會重點扶持,已經成為前者利潤的發動機。正是券商這種可以推薦上市的獨特優勢,反過來又成為市場反覆詬病的焦點所在。利益衝突、利益輸送、甚至投行保薦人的假公濟私、或公私兼顧等嫌疑和劣迹,都在成為券商直投難以自證清白的「罩門」。

2011年7月7日 星期四

華夏基金貴得有理


對於正考慮進軍中國市場的海外基金管理公司而言,壞消息是當地基金業管理的資產規模過去兩年幾乎原地踏步,介乎2.3萬億至2.4萬億元人民幣。好消息則是,十年前,這個數字是零。

叫價高西方基金兩倍

因此,面對中國規模最大且人脈關係最廣的基金管理公司華夏基金(China Asset Management Corporation)本周正式求售,轉讓部分股份,不少外國基金公司應該好好抓緊這個機會。

全資擁有華夏的中信證券擬合共轉讓51%股權,並分拆成10%至11%的五分,分別售予兩家國有獨資或國有控股企業、兩家境內企業以及一家(擁有合適資格的)外國基金公司。

目前在中國立足的海外基金約有三十家,名氣大但又未進駐內地市場的基金就有美國上市基金T Rowe Price、同樣以巴爾的摩為基地的美盛集團(Legg Mason),以及美國指數基金先驅Vanguard。縱使華夏的估值相當於管理資產的7.2%,比西方基金管理公司的一般叫價高一至兩倍,但上述基金業巨頭相信不會被這個價錢嚇怕。

根據以上海為基地的中國基金業諮詢公司Z-Ben Advisors的數據,自2005年至今的基金管理公司交易,作價平均為管理資產的6.4%。再者,中國約九成基金產品的客戶由五大銀行控制,有能力跟這些銀行討價還價,支配有關產品分銷條款的中國基金公司,也許只有六家左右,而華夏正是其一。

的而且確,內地股市目前正陷於膠着悶局。綜合上證指數及深證指數表現的中證指數(CSI index)目前的水平幾乎跟年頭時一模一樣,只管在上下波幅8個百分點的區間徘徊。這不僅與向來以短期回報令人興奮見稱的中國股市特色背道而馳,更難以吸引散戶投資者入市。

樓市調整有利股市

不過,中國股市的悶局始終有打破的一天。樓市調整或會重燃投資者對股票的興趣,尤其是當通脹同時回落,對股市的推動作用可望更大。對於環球基金管理業而言,沒有比現在更好的機會了。

譯自THE LEX COLUMN

版權所有:FINANCIAL TIMES

2011年6月26日 星期日

國際大型對沖基金雲集香港 搶高甲級寫字樓租金


亞洲金融風暴期間政府擔心國際對沖基金擾亂本地市場秩序,事隔13年,這些大鱷相繼來港雄踞中環的甲級寫字樓,他們出手闊綽,在其推波助瀾下,租金創歷史高位,以國際金融中心二期為例,目前每呎的入場費已達到190元。

去年香港正式被確立為離岸人民幣中心,加上美國要求投資銀行分拆「坐盤」交易部門,國際大鱷來港蔚然成風,過去12個月較受市場注目的包括索羅斯基金管理、高盛證券前「盤房」主管施家文成立的Azentus、GLG Partners、Viking Global、成立首個以人民幣計價對沖基金的發邏資產管理(Pharo)等,均租用中環甲級寫字樓為辦公室。

專門為對沖基金、私募基金擔任物業代理的嘉峰資本管理董事朱志江表示,過去六個月中環甲級寫字樓的租金,被國際對沖基金推高得頗為厲害。

據悉,目前國金二期每方呎租金叫價達190元,是歷史新高,由於出租率近100%,意味租客議價能力甚低,對沖基金往往要邀請客戶到辦公室開會,不惜斥資數百萬元裝修,相等於每呎達1000元,這與他們「2/20」的高收費模式(管理費約為管理資產的2%,實際回報約20%)不無關係。

對沖基金一般租用1500至2000平方呎的單位,部分的面積達4000平方呎,以每平方呎190元為例,再加上約9元的管理費,每月租金開支最少29.8萬元。索羅斯和Viking Global都是國金二期的租戶,其中後者更租用19樓全層,而Azentus則選擇樓齡較高的花園道中國工商銀行大廈,平均呎價也達到120元。

樓宇配套設施要求高

大部分對沖基金依賴先進交易科技,例如高頻交易(HFT),絕不容許down time,因此,對後備電源等相關配套的要求非常高,這解釋為何他們首選在較新的甲級寫字樓為辦公室,例如國金二期、友邦金融中心、長江中心等。」朱志江指出。

他補充說,對沖基金找辦公室的積極性與大市表現關係密切,近日市況欠佳,他們往往多看幾個單位慢慢考慮,預期下半年的租務成交會放緩;不過,租金水平將繼續向上。

與此同時,部分國際大鱷的核心投資團隊只有幾個人,卻租用全層的寫字樓。「他們普遍租用較大的辦公室,準備當市況轉好,便立即擴充團隊規模。」朱志江說。

第一太平戴維斯商業樓宇部資深董事(港島區)劉偉基表示,年初至今來自對沖基金的甲級寫字樓租務成交比去年少,被來自俄羅斯和內地的企業取代。

據國際物業顧問公司高緯環球資料,本港去年甲級商廈租金升幅達51%,每月平均呎租達110元,超越東京和倫敦西部,成為全球寫字樓租金最昂貴的地區,預期2011年甲級寫字樓將有平均20%至25%的租金升幅。

2011年6月23日 星期四

SAC, Ortus Lead Hedge Fund Expansion, Fuelling Hong Kong Office Demand

Hedge funds including SAC Capital Advisor LP and Ortus Capital Management Ltd. are expanding in Hong Kong, fueling demand for space and driving rents higher in the world’s most expensive office market.

SAC Capital of Stamford, Connecticut is in talks to boost its space by 20 percent after adding employees at its more than 5,000-square-foot office at York House, said two people with knowledge of the matter, who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public. Ortus Capital, a $2.5 billion macro hedge fund based in Hong Kong, this month moved into premises 20 percent bigger in St. George’s Building, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

Prime office rents in Central business district rose 8.5 percent from January to the end of May as financial services companies boosted hiring in the city, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.Hong Kong and Singapore are luring global hedge funds returning to the region following their retreat during the 2008 credit crisis.

“Hedge funds and private equity are capable of paying higher rents and they make decisions fast,” said Bernard Chu, director at Sagarmatha Capital Ltd., a Hong Kong-based real estate broker specializing in hedge funds and private equity firms. In Central, “they’re willing to pay around 5 to 10 percent more compared with investment banks, law firms and accounting firms, and they’re willing to pay an even higher premium for grade A buildings such as the International Finance Centre.”

Record Fund Inflow

The $3.6 billion capital that investors added to Asian hedge funds in the first three months was the largest quarterly inflow into the regional industry, according to Chicago-based service provider Hedge Fund Research Inc. The number of hedge funds focused on Asia increased to 1,055 in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2008.

Nine Masts Capital Ltd., led by Wang Bing, former Asia head of Deutsche Bank AG’s Saba proprietary trading desk, is negotiating to more than double its 1,500-square-foot office space after its assets under management surged 10-fold to more than $300 million since it started trading in May 2010, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Matchpoint Investment Management Asia Ltd., a Hong Kong- based hedge fund co-founded byOch-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (OZM) partner Raaj Shah, and Sean Debow, former Asia managing director of Los Angeles-based Ivory Investment Management LP, found a new location where it doubled its space, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

More Space

The 4,300-square-foot L. Place office it moved into last month provided more room after its staff tripled to more than 15 since its September 2009 inception, and its assets under management jumped fivefold to $270 million, the person said.

Instead of moving, Senrigan Capital Group Ltd., the $1 billion Hong Kong-based hedge fund backed by Blackstone Group LP (BX) and led by former Citadel Investment Group LLC manager Nick Taylor, took an adjacent unit at Wheelock House after it more than doubled its workforce to at least 20 people since it started trading in November 2009, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

Janice Tang, Ortus’s spokeswoman; Katarina Bendle, who represents Senrigan; Elaine Davis, Nine Masts’ chief operating officer; Jonathan Gasthalter, an outside spokesman for SAC Capital, and Matchpoint’s Debow declined to comment.

About 25 of the biggest global hedge fund firms are seeking to expand in Asia, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG report last year. About 75 percent of the top 100 global hedge funds, ranked by Alpha Magazine based on assets managed, will likely have a presence in Asia, according to the Zurich-based bank’s prime brokerage unit.

Actively Looking

“If someone’s still seeking office space in Central at this moment, they’re likely someone who’s willing to pay a very high rent,” said John Siu, Hong Kong-based general manager at Cushman & Wakefield Inc., the biggest closely held property services company. “Hedge funds have been very actively looking for additional space since the market recovered from the credit crisis and it looks like this trend is continuing.”

Hong Kong’s prime office rents jumped more than a third to $2,066.35 per square meter at the end of last year, the highest in the world and almost double the cost of the City of London, according to Colliers International Research.

Average rents for new tenants at top-tier buildings including Cheung Kong Center andInternational Finance Centre in Central stood at HK$159 a square foot per month at the end of May, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. Only 1.3 percent of these buildings are vacant, compared with the 3.7 percent average for the rest of Central, the Chicago-based property brokerage said.

Less Bargaining Power

Hedge funds and asset managers may also be paying more for leases because they usually take up space of between “a few thousand to under 10,000 square feet,” Siu said. That gives them less bargaining power compared with investment banks that take up multiple floors at premium buildings with areas up to “tens of thousands of square feet,” he said.

Central’s higher rents drove some banks and professional services providers such as law and accounting firms out of the district to less expensive areas. Allianz Global, the investment unit of Allianz SE, Europe’s largest insurer, which occupied about 20,500 square feet in Cheung Kong Center, last month moved to nearby Citibank Plaza, where average rents are about 30 percent lower. Deutsche Bank AG last year completed its relocation to the International Commerce Centre in West Kowloon.

2011年6月9日 星期四

Beware This Chinese Export

Feature

| SATURDAY, AUGUST 28, 2010



IN CHINA, IF YOU WANT YOUR BUSINESS LISTED on an American stock exchange, you may find yourself talking to Du Qingsong. His electronics company was among the first to reach Nasdaq back in 1997. From the city of Xi'an, the end of the ancient Silk Road in central China, Du has put together half a dozen of the country's latest arrivals on the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange. Yet it's hard to find him in their securities filings or even at his office, located in a room inside the headquarters of his son's beef company. That could be because Du was banned from stock-market activity, after drawing a four-year jail term for a 1999 fraud conviction.

Like their American counterparts, China's biggest businesses raise capital through underwritten initial public offerings. But in the past few years, hundreds of mid-market entities have gotten U.S. listings through a back-door maneuver known as a "reverse takeover"—in which an active Chinese business merges into a dormant American shell corporation that was registered for public trading. So Chinese medical-device vendor Winner Group merged into the shell of Las Vegas Resorts; tire maker Zhongsen International merged into Rub A Dub Soap. The stocks rarely surpass $1 billion in market capitalization, but their collective presence is substantial. More than 350 of these deals have been done in recent years, reaching, at their peaks, a combined capitalization of more than $50 billion.


A Barron's study of the most seasoned 158 China reverse mergers shows that in the first three years of each stock's trading, the median among them underperformed the Halter Index by a dismal 75% (see the chart, Relatively Lousy). The Halter index is composed of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, ranging from the American depositary shares of well-known names like Internet giant Baidu.com (ticker: BIDU) and telecom power China Mobile (CHL) to small-cap reverse mergers. The median of those China reverse mergers lagged behind the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks by 66%.
The billions in reverse-merger losses were shouldered by Chinese entrepreneurs, who thought they were raising capital the American way—and by American investors, who thought they were buying a piece of China's prosperity.

The lure for American investors is the wondrous growth of China's economy and the ascent of such benchmarks as the Halter USX CHINA Index, which rose more than 60% last year. But most reverse-merger stocks have proven to be a poor way to ride China's boom. Today, the market cap of these stocks has shrunk to $20 billion, a 60% drop.

Reasons for the stocks' disappointing performance aren't hard to find. The group has been a minefield of revenue disappointments and earnings restatements. Financial filings the companies make with the Securities and Exchange Commission often diverge from those filed with the Chinese government—by drastic amounts. Investor and analyst visits to corporate facilities in China reveal operations smaller and less impressive than shown in U.S. presentations. The companies too often select auditors who have previously signed off on the financials of companies that turned out to be busts. Some companies' securities filings don't disclose the involvement of promoters in China or the U.S., who—like Du Qingsong—have disquieting track records in the stock market.

These companies fall between the cracks of market regulation. The SEC's enforcement staff can't subpoena evidence of any fraudulent activities in China, and Chinese regulators have little incentive to monitor shares sold only in the U.S. Many reverse-merged companies admit in prospectuses that they haven't gotten required approvals under China's financial regulations. Yet the convoluted structures devised by lawyers in China and the U.S. have kept the companies out of trouble, says Mitchell Nussbaum, a lawyer with Loeb & Loeb who's arranged dozens of reverse mergers. But satisfying each country's legal requirements doesn't make the companies' shares good investments.

The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act to police auditors, recently warned against lax auditing of U.S.-listed Chinese businesses. The PCAOB plans to ask Congress to lift restrictions on the disclosure of its disciplinary proceedings against accountants. China is one of several nations that won't let the PCAOB inspect the local auditors used by U.S.-listed companies.

AS WITH THE MANUFACTURED GOODS that China exports to the U.S., there's an established supply chain for Chinese reverse mergers. At the Chinese end, promoters like Du Qingsong scout out businesses that are viable candidates for reverse mergers. Some of the companies are reorganized around their most profitable parts. These are then merged in share exchanges with American shells that are frequently provided by U.S. firms that deal in penny stocks. The Big Board or Nasdaq collect listing fees. Capital is injected by hedge funds, who in return get cheap shares in a private placement. The hedge funds often also get substantial say over the new U.S. company's hiring of key financial personnel. Among the active and well-known investment banks in these deals are Roth Capital, Rodman & Renshaw and William Blair. Bankers fete the companies at investor conferences; one even featured former President George W. Bush as keynote speaker. This week, as it happens, Roth Capital is hosting its annual gathering of reverse-takeover companies at Hawaii's Grand Wailea Resort.

Only a handful of reverse takeovers have made it from China to a listing on the most prominent U.S. exchange, the NYSE. One of them is China Green Agriculture (CGA), which produces fertilizer and operates greenhouses. In late 2007, the predecessor to China Green reverse-merged with Discovery Technologies, the dormant shell of a Mexican-restaurant operator whose stock had fallen to less than a penny a share. The deal was already complex. Before merging into Discovery, China Green's predecessor first merged into a New Jersey corporation controlled by Yinshing David To. To was a Chinese citizen who also goes by the names ShingHoi To and Du Chenghai. His father is Du Qingsong.

After surviving China's Cultural Revolution, Du Qingsong rose in the 1980s to become general manager of Sha'anxi province's largest fertilizer factory. Provincial officials then sent him to run a floundering maker of TV-tube components in Xi'an City. Du revitalized the state-owned enterprise and, by 1997, one of its units was listed on China's Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In September of that year, Du took two other subsidiaries of the state business onto Nasdaq, raising $42 million in one of the exchange's first China listings. But the Nasdaq stock, Asia Electronics Holding Co., went into a tailspin when Du disappeared in the summer of 1998.

He'd been arrested. Newspaper reports speculated that Du was the victim of a power struggle between his political patrons in Xi'an and their rivals. In 1999, a local court found Du guilty of "fraudulent investment schemes" and sent him to prison. China's securities regulators also barred Du from China's stock markets and any management role in a listed company. Nasdaq delisted Asia Electronics after its shares fell to pennies. At a subsequent corruption trial of the Xi'an branch chief of China's securities regulator, evidence showed that Du had given the branch chief 5,000 shares of his company before its Shenzhen Exchange listing. The regulator got a 12-year sentence after a bribery conviction.

Du, now 64, agreed to speak with Barron's when we called him. (Xia Ming, a China expert and political scientist at City University of New York, translated.) But, asked about run-ins with the Chinese government, Du cancelled the interview. He communicated with us, instead, by e-mail. His jail sentence, he wrote, was the result of politics. "After their investigation, they found nothing," said Du. "The court made the decision simply for the sake of a conviction." As for the alleged bribery of a securities regulator, Du said in the e-mail that government officials sometimes took shares meant for employees. "I merely acquiesced without objection," he said. "I only met him once. I never had any relationship with him."

Once the fertilizer company China Green became a U.S. stock in December of 2007, its SEC filings show that Du's son, whose New Jersey company had merged with it, controlled 38% of its shares. He later turned most of the stake over to China Green's chief executive, Li Tao, under the terms of an agreement worked out with the company's hedge-fund investors. Du's son retained 3%. "We always take cash for our consulting service," Du Qingsong wrote to Barron's , explaining the arrangement . "Of course, if the consulting service is for a listing, we also take some percentage of shares."

China Green says Du was not involved in founding or organizing the company, "directly or indirectly," nor did he receive any stock.

Du hands out an expensive-looking marketing brochure for his consulting firm AiDi Investment, with pictures of him alongside "directors" who its says include a partner of the well-known law firm Proskauer. The law firm says its partners have no relationship with Du. Many of the photos also feature an American stockbroker, Meiyi Mary Xia, who started a brokerage firm called Asia Pacific Securities with Du just before he was arrested in 1998. Her home is the address used for AiDi's American office and for the China Green shareholdings of Du's son. When the diesel-fuel producer China Integrated Energy(CBEH) did a reverse merger in October 2007, about 90% of its stock was held for a time by Xia. Her husband, Lawrence Xiao Xia Pan, was Nasdaq's chief China representative from 2005 to 2007. When asked about Du, Xia said, "I don't work with him any more," and hung up.

In scouting for reverse-takeover candidates, Du Qingsong has plenty of competitors.

One is Kit Tsui, who has helped deliver some of China's most volatile reverse takeover stocks, like the chemical supplier Gulf Resources (GFRE) and the cardboard makerOrient Paper (ONP). The two stocks rocketed from pennies a share to about 15 bucks around year end, ballooning the value of shares held by Tsui through entities like Max Time Enterprises. But trouble seems to haunt Tsui's deals. The company that first brought him to Nasdaq—a telephone manufacturer he'd started in the 1990s by the name of Industries International—had its main business forced into bankruptcy by Chinese authorities in 2004, and its auditor alleged that the company misreported related-party deals with Tsui. Tsui subsequently stepped down.

In June, the Amex-listed shares of Orient Paper plunged to 5 when a pair of investment researchers published a report declaring the company a fraud. The Hong Kong-based analysts, whose firm is Muddy Waters Research, said in their report that they visited Orient Paper's factory in January and found it idle and dilapidated. They calculated that the company's SEC filings overstated the value of its assets some ten-fold. Revenues were overstated 40-fold, the researchers estimated. They've shorted the company's stock. Muddy Waters said last week it stands by its conclusions.

Company spokesman Crocker Coulson said Orient Paper would have no comment, pending a board-commissioned internal investigation of the Muddy Waters allegations by the company's lawyer, Loeb & Loeb's Mitchell Nussbaum, who also declined comment. A money manager who spoke with company officials says they blame Tsui for the alleged irregularities. Barron's left messages at Tsui's offices in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. We heard nothing back. We also visited the address of Tsui's firms, China Finance and China U.S. Strategy, in New York, near Rockefeller Center, but building attendants said the floor was vacant.

One of the most controversial promoters of Chinese reverse takeovers, Benjamin Wey, continues to find work. Wey'shistory of suspension and censure by Nasdaq and state securities regulators has been amply reported, including a Barron's story ("AgFeed Trips on Its Way to the Trough," May 19, 2008). Since our piece describing Wey's work for the hog farmer AgFeed Industries (FEED), the company has missed production targets and its shares have slumped from 15 to below 2.50. The company could not respond to queries by presstime. In an interview last year with the English-language newspaper China Daily, officials of his New York Global Group investment bank claimed that 15% of the Chinese companies on Nasdaq were its clients. The firm has offices in Beijing and at 40 Wall Street in New York. On its Website (www.nyggroup.com), Wey's firm brags of alliances with four city governments and China's central bank. With hedge-fund operator Michael D. Witter—grandson of the brokerage founder Dean Witter—Wey last year announced plans to raise $300 million to invest in China companies. Neither Wey nor Witter responded to Barron's queries.

Kitchen-appliance maker Deer Consumer Products (DEER) doesn't mention Wey in its securities filings. But the Chinese language version of Wey's Website shows him flying with Deer's management in a private jet on the night before the pricing of a $75 million secondary offering underwritten by William Blair and BMO Capital Markets. Wey's latest success story is CleanTech Innovations (EVCP), a maker of windmill towers whose shares tripled to $9.50 shortly after a July private placement led by William Blair. At that price, the stock trades for 220 times last year's earnings.

THE REVERSE TAKEOVER of a China company usually coincides with a private placement of its shares with hedge funds. For instance, in the reverse merger of China Green in December 2007, hedge funds and other investors bought $20.5 million of the new company's stock. Among the frequent participants in such deals are Pinnacle Adviser's Barry Kitt, Barron Capital's Andrew B. Worden and Guerilla Capital's Peter Siris, who's talked about his Chinese stock holdings with this magazine.

Plano, Texas-based Kitt has invested in dozens of China reverse mergers—often taking the lead position in the private placement. When executives of China Green, the fertilizer company that had initially merged with the company controlled by Du Qingsong's son, rang the opening bell at their NYSE listing in April, Kitt was beside them on the balcony. In the reception that followed, Kitt thanked China Green for letting him invest. Kitt refused an interview and after he received e-mailed questions, our messages were blocked from his e-mail system.

As with most private placements of public equities—otherwise known as PIPEs—the investing public should think twice before following PIPE investors.

To test whether particular funds' participation augered well for investors, Barron'sstudied the performance of hedge funds' Chinese PIPE deals the same way we did all the Chinese reverse mergers. We analyzed data from Morningstar and Bloomberg using the statistics routines of the open-source project Rmetrics (www.rmetrics.org), which many Wall Street firms utilize. One of Rmetrics' developers, Yohan Chalabi, a Ph.D. student at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, helped write our computer scripts. We compared each stock's return, from the date of its reverse-merger announcement, against a benchmark's return for the corresponding period. Because the stocks all had different merger dates, this approach (known as an "event study") helps control for varying market environments. Then we looked at the median return for the group under examination (see charts, Relatively Lousy). Of the reverse mergers where Pinnacle was a PIPE investor, there were 23 stocks with at least one year of returns. Over that stretch, the post-merger return of those stocks slightly lagged behind that of the Halter Index, as it did for the 15 stocks in Kitt's PIPE portfolio that had three-year returns.

Relatively Lousy

From 2003, Barron's compared the cumulative return of 349 Chinese reverse-merger stocks against the Halter USX China Index starting from the merger announcement. The red line, below, is the Halter-relative return of the median of the 158 reverse mergers with three years of data. At the bottom, Halter-relative returns of reverse mergers banked by Roth Capital, or funded by Barry Kitt, or advised by Crocker Coulson.

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Investors would be well advised to steer clear of stocks like those in the PIPE deals involving Andrew B. Worden's Barron Capital. Of those China stocks, 11 had at least a year's worth of returns and their median lagged behind the Halter Index by 30%. For the seven stocks with three years of returns, the median fell short of the Halter Index by over 75%. The Barron Website features testimonials by the chief executives of Orient Paper and SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) thanking Worden for his support. The Website invites companies to let him introduce them to lawyers and accountants who can help them go public. It boasts of his 20 years analyzing and investing in public and private companies, yet neglects to mention that during that span he pled guilty in a 1995 prosecution for wire fraud and settled an SEC civil suit that alleged he'd opened dozens of accounts and then stiffed brokers on losing trades. Worden didn't return calls or e-mails.

Buried in the exhibits of many reverse-takeover filings are agreements that often give hedge funds like Worden's and Kitt's extraordinary sway over the fledgling companies. In exchange for their PIPE financings, the funds get approval power over a company's choice of auditor, investor-relations firm and chief financial officer. One of the most frequently stipulated IR firms is CCG Investor Relations, which boasted last year that its "core group" of 15 clients had gained an average of 412% after listing on the Nasdaq or the Amex. CCG founder Crocker Coulson told Barron's that China offers "the most exciting economy and companies in the world." He has set up two blind-pool companies to invest in Chinese businesses.

But a longer term analysis of Coulson's client list shows performance that doesn't come close to his selective sample. As shown in the nearby chart, the median return among the 30 CCG reverse-merger clients with at least three years of trading history underperformed the Halter index by a whopping 70%, since their mergers. Coulson commented that these companies had only benefitted from CCG's services for a portion of their history as U.S. listings.

Hedge funds would seem to want to ensure that their portfolio companies hire only the sharpest auditors. Yet one after another of the reverse-merger companies hire the same small firms that certified the financials of companies that came to grief.

Dozens have hired Frazer Frost, the successor firm to Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer & Torbet. Moore Stephens, a Los Angeles auditor, gave clean audit opinions in 2004-05 to China Energy Savings Technology. Doubts about the balance sheet caused the SEC to suspend trading in 2006 and eventually file a fraud suit against the company, which is now defunct. The PCAOB found no deficiencies when it made its regular inspection of Frazer Frost and the firm's Asian-services partner, Susan Woo, notes that she and her colleagues go to China themselves to examine and audit clients. "We are the guard to the public and we have a responsibility," she says.

Accounting problems have recently surfaced at a couple of Frazer Frost's China clients. Even the investment banker of China Natural Gas (CHNG) consigned the stock to a Sell rating a couple weeks ago after the company admitted that its March balance sheet had failed to reflect a large bank loan from February. RINO International (RINO), a Frazer Frost client that makes equipment for sewers, has had three auditors and four CFOs in the past four years, while restating its financials twice. "Every company has some deficiencies in internal controls," says Woo. "These are newly public companies."

Another popular auditing pick is Kabani & Co., a small Los Angeles firm that the PCAOB found deficient in a routine inspection in 2008. Kabani audited Bodisen Biotech, one of the earliest China blowups. Bodisen's shares ran up to 19 with the help of commercials on CNBC, then tanked to 47 cents when the Amex suspended the stock in 2007 over the company's misleading disclosure of its relationship with Benjamin Wey's New York Global Group. Kabani has audited a number of Wey's other promotions and now audits China Green. Partner Hamid Kabani did not respond to requests for an interview.

As the "auditor of auditors," the PCAOB has sounded an alarm over the auditing of overseas businesses. A July 12 practice alert noted with concern that 40 accounting firms with five or fewer partners had rendered opinions on companies with China-based operations. "We take these practice alerts very seriously," says Greg Scates, the agency's deputy chief auditor.

AT THE END OF THE reverse-merger supply chain are the U.S. bankers, which include Roth Capital, Rodman & Renshaw and William Blair, among others.

Journey to the West

In all about 350 China companies have merged their way to the U.S. markets since 2003.

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The pre-eminent banker for China reverse mergers is Roth, the Newport Beach, Calif., firm whose promotional materials say that it pioneered the practice of PIPE financing and has helped raise more than $2.8 billion for 67 U.S.-listed Chinese companies. Roth works closely with hedge funds like Kitt's Pinnacle. Indeed, Kitt's son is an investment banker in Roth's Shanghai office.

The broker's analysts were caught flat-footed by the problems of banking clients like Orient Paper and China Natural Gas, cutting ratings and price targets after the shares had already slumped.

Questions have also begun to be raised by investors about banking client China Green. In SEC filings the company reported revenues of $23 million for 2008, but in its tax filings in Xi'an it reported less than $8 million. "CGA's financial statements are accurate," said chief executive Li Tao, in an e-mail. "Legitimate reasons exist for why [China's State Administration for Industry and Commerce's] reported financial statements do not match those numbers filed with the SEC."

Roth Chairman and CEO Byron Roth declined an interview, but in an e-mail said: "We take the due diligence process very seriously and perform extensive due diligence." Asked about the promoters Du Qingsong, Kit Tsui and Benjamin Wey, Roth wrote: "None has had any role in connection with any offering we have completed."

When asked how Roth's banking clients had performed as investments, the brokerage chief said the 70 China stocks that his analysts follow were up 120% in 2009 and down about 15% through early August. That didn't quite answer the question, so we ran the numbers ourselves.

Of the 28 Roth client companies with at least three years of trading post-merger, the median among them underperformed the Halter Index by one third over a three-year period. By comparison, the Roth client companies roughly matched the returns of the Russell 2000. Roth isn't alone as a banker for China reverse-mergers, of course. Running a similar three-year analysis of Rodman & Renshaw's banking clients, we found the 12 companies with three years' of post-merger returns performed some 70% worse than the Halter Index. Rodman's Chief Executive Edward Rubin says his bank focused on China in a big way in 2009, after most of these stocks had been reverse-merged and—he claims—abandoned by their original bankers.

The reverse-merger industry gathers in Hawaii this week at a Roth conference—a venue equally favored by China stock touts and by the sector's short sellers. The rest of us should probably stay home.


北美「股壇長毛」發功 內地民企「爆煲」成風

‧炒股就像看籃球比賽,除了基本面誰可看高一線,也要看臨場發揮;同樣道理,投資股票時基本因素及技術因素也缺一不可。戴約克及黃玲在20 頁「財金教室」從上述兩方面評估大快活(052)的短炒價值。

‧一個普通人活到七十歲,扣除「亂打亂撞」的日子,剩下的光陰不多,如何「善用萬多天」?錢志健在27 頁介紹兩位在金融市場有過風光日子的過來人,如何歸於平淡卻活得更踏實精采。

‧因為「大得不容倒閉」的想法,各國政府傾盡財力拯救罪有應得的大銀行。然而,從來沒有證據證明有銀行重要得非救不可,雷曼倒閉的不可收拾局面也不能視為反證。28 頁「THE LEX COLUMN」刺破too big to fail 的迷思。

6月5日,周日。眾所周知,香港「股壇長毛」David Webb以揭發本地上市公司「蠱惑賬」得享大名,粉絲不少,樹敵更多。

北美股壇亦有一位「長毛」,三十四歲,律師出身,姓【圖】,曾在上海執業,起初替外資在華併購投資穿針引線,惟也許耳濡目染多了,久而久之,對內地民企「另眼相看」,去年6月創辦網上研究公司Muddy Waters,轉而為對沖基金提供投資研究服務,專門針對「貨不對辦」的美加掛牌內地民企發出沽售建議,最新一家被「點中死穴」的是「對沖天王」John Paulson【圖】旗下基金持有逾一成四股權而成單一大股東的嘉漢林業(Sino-Forest,多倫多證交所代號TRE,在本港上市公司綠森集團〔094〕持股63.6%;綠森上周五申請停牌獲准)。

Muddy Waters開業不足一年,創辦人不過三十出頭,卻一而再令過去數年通過借殼形式在美加上市的內地民企「雞毛鴨血」,醜態百出,Carson Block的影響力,絕對不容忽視。這個「黃毛小子」來勢洶洶,從二事上可見一斑:①美國金融周刊《巴隆氏》不久前替Block做了一個專訪,一唱一和,力「插」美加上市內地小型股(《巴隆氏》2010年8月30日發表〈當心這種中國出口〉〔Beware this Chinese Export〕一文,其質疑內地民企的立場,早已彰彰明甚);②有「第一中國淡友」之稱的美國著名投資者Jim Chanos,最近大吐苦水,慨嘆北美上市企業名稱中只要有China或Sino任何一字,大大話話十家有九家股價給「質」至體無完膚,沽得落手者已少之又少。

對沖天王慘遭滑鐵盧

嘉漢林業成為Muddy Waters最新「踩場」對象,股價狂瀉,周日有紙出的香港報章,多有篇幅不小的報道,原因相信有三:①嘉漢林業持有本港上市綠森集團控制性股權,後者在長假期前主動申請停牌,原因雖未見申述,惟嘉漢與綠森關係密切,投資者有某種聯想,事屬正常;②John Paulson透過旗下基金持有嘉漢14.13%股權,據說在該股上周四、五一連兩天暴瀉中大幅減持,損失達3.17億加元,若把Paulson持有數值不菲的嘉漢債券計算在內,損失必然不止此數;③嘉漢董事會成員名單上不乏港人熟悉的名字,包括前和黃(013)董事總經理、現任嘉能可(805)主席馬世民(Simon Murray),而據綠森集團刊發的停牌通告,馬世民在綠森亦擔任非執行董事一職。

對沖天王老貓燒鬚,加上香港上市公司和本地名利場中無人不識的人物捲入紛爭,嘉漢林業本身雖不在香港上市,惟事態發展深受持份者、非持份者以至監管機構高度關注,理所當然。

Muddy Waters的報告引發嘉漢股價洗倉式下跌(從上周三收市價18.21加元,瀉至上周五收市5.23加元,兩日跌幅超過七成),公司在6月4日周六發表聲明回應,既就嘉漢嚴重誇大在雲南臨滄市森林資產的指控作出強烈反駁,同時反客為主連消帶打,以Muddy Waters在報告中自承建立了嘉漢空倉,力陳發表報告者別有用心,作出不盡不實斷章取義的「分析」,目的是興風作浪,為其創辦人及客戶牟取暴利。嘉漢還強調,為證報告對公司的指控子虛烏有,集團已責成一個獨立委員會展開調查,結果一出,便能還嘉漢一個清白。

設獨立委員會跟進

對外行人來說,Muddy Waters與嘉漢各執一詞,「真相」不易辨明。然而,老畢周末刊了該份長達三十九頁的報告,發現一個既「有趣」又重要,惟嘉漢在聲明中並未作出正面回應之處,不妨在此一提。

Muddy Waters對嘉漢最嚴厲的指控,除了集團在雲南臨滄市的森林投資,只及公司聲稱的十分之一,以價值計,誇大之數達9億美元,還有公司採用的「人工中介人」(Artificial Intermediary,簡稱AI)商業模式:AI聲稱購入木材,將之製成木屑後再售給客戶;嘉漢似乎有意利用這種迂迴曲折的手法,製造會計假象,在既未拿出任何資本亦未轉移任何實質貨物的情況下,誇大資產規模和銷售業績。

為令這些交易成為會計上的「事實」,嘉漢承擔所有與木材相關的風險和責任,有效時間由原材料運到AI的設施開始,直至加工成木屑為止,AI違約引起的任何損失則屬例外。集團在向監管機構提交的文件中指明,除了上述有效時間,AI承擔木材的所有風險及責任──由購入木材至售予客戶為止。為了使讀報告者易於明白,Muddy Waters以一幅製作精美的配圖,針對上述「似是而非」的交易詳作解構【圖】。

作為門外漢,老畢對Muddy Waters報告中的細節重點,理解未必完全正確,加上當事人已表明,將組成獨立委員會徹查事件據理力爭,誰對誰錯,此刻不宜妄下判斷。然而,從投資者的立場出發,老畢認為有一點值得討論:在投資世界,名氣不宜輕信。John Paulson在此役中慘遭滑鐵盧,令投資者看到,即使星級基金經理,在「盡職審查」(due diligence)上也可能處處漏眼,「醒目錢」(smart money)亦難保不會聰明一世蠢鈍一時;投資者在買入任何股票前,不自己做足功課只懂「追星」,蒙受損失咎由自取,責不在人。值得一提的是,被行內機構StarMine評為今年加拿大最佳選股人之一的Raymond James林業股分析員Daryl Swetlishoff,在嘉漢股價狂瀉一天前(上周三),以價值被低估、勢必受惠於亞洲木材需求和定價能力為理據,發出「強烈買入」(Strong Buy)嘉漢的投資建議。跟此君入貨,慘矣!

看淡中國亦成泡沫

然而,投資者亦應看到,Muddy Waters專找海外上市內地民企麻煩,曲線沽空中國,迄今大有所成。在內地決策當局竭盡全力防止「中國泡沫」之際,Carson Block、Jim Chanos等淡友於美加發難,掀起一股逢中必沽且看似必賺的熱潮;在整個北美洲,「中國泡沫」(China Bubble)已迅速被「看淡中國泡沫」(Anti-China Bubble)取而代之。一些財政健全、業務基礎良好的海外上市民企,價值正在逐步顯現!


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