據外媒引述接近國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的消息人士周三透露，
拉加德周三在出任總幹事後的首次新聞發布會上承諾，
勢現兩名亞洲人高層
路透社和《華爾街日報》都報道，
拉加德競逐總幹事一職時，曾經前往中國，游說北京支持，
中國一直爭取在IMF擔任高職，但日本拒絕讓出副總幹事一職，
朱民出任副總幹事，將令IMF高層職位出現兩名亞洲人，
白宮顧問或接替利普斯基
IMF第二號人物、第一副總幹事利普斯基（John Lipsky）下月離任，消息指美國可能提名白宮顧問利普頓（
美國傳統基金會（Heritage Foundation）亞洲經濟政策專家史劍道（Derek Scissors）認為，無人會反對中國取得IMF高職。
拉加德又為自己是律師而非經濟學者出身辯護，
拉加德又說，
Ahead of a major financial event for Argentina — a $20bn debt swap that would herald a new era in its tangled relationship with the capital markets — FT correspondent Jude Webber offers insight into the mood of the country’s finance secretary.
Hernán Lorenzino, Argentina’s finance secretary, looks remarkably relaxed for a man structuring a complex debt swap that could make or break the country’s ability to return to global capital markets.
He’s even hoping to slip in a family holiday at the beach over Easter before the green light from regulators in Europe means thunderbirds are go.
And he has plenty to smile about – though on paper this offer looks to be at least as tough as the debt restructuring Argentina pushed through in 2005, four years after its default. In fact better market conditions have heightened its appeal, pushing its value into the 50s, not 33 like in 2005.
What Argentina is keen to stress now is that it has gone out of its way to tailor the deal as much as possible to retail investors, especially those in Italy who were and remain sceptical. In that sense, Mr Lorenzino’s smiles look like a more softly-softly approach than the hard-line taken five years ago.
Nonetheless, the ultimate message – accept now, it’s your final chance – remains the same. Mr Lorenzino’s cool must also reflect relief the nail-biting SEC approval stage is over and with market sentiment positive on the offer, Argentina must be feeling it’s in the home straits of a very long and bumpy ride.
Jude Webber is the FT’s correspondent for Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay (which she most recently wrote about in a piece for the weekend magazine - ‘Ciudad del Este’s deadly trade route‘)
Related links:
Argentine groups may revisit international bonds – FT
Martin Wolf: Argentina holds a weak hand – FT (2005)
Corporate bond issues go local to deliver capital lift – FT
Would you like some chips with that Argentine exposure? – FT Alphaville (2008)
Leaders of the 16-nation eurozone endorsed a Franco-German proposal for a mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates, while voicing confidence that Greece would not need outside help to cut Europe's biggest budget deficit.
"It's an extremely clear political message," European Union president Herman Van Rompuy told reporters after the leaders met in Brussels early yesterday morning. "It's a mixed mechanism but with Europe playing the dominant role. It will be triggered as a last resort."
European leaders sought to bury concerns that divisions over aiding Greece would escalate the debt crisis and further undermine the euro after it sank to a 10-month low against the US dollar.
After objecting to a possible IMF intrusion on the US$12 trillion eurozone economy, the ECB endorsed the package, with president Jean-Claude Trichet saying European governments will remain in control of the process.
Trichet described surrendering control to the IMF as "very, very bad", before backtracking and revising his comments.
The euro rallied after Trichet came out in favour of the package.
Under the accord brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, each eurozone country would provide non-subsidised loans to Greece based on its stake in the ECB, a statement said. Europe would provide more than half the loans and the IMF the rest, which would only be triggered if Greece runs out of fund-raising options.
Asserting her clout as head of the EU's largest economy, Merkel pushed for the IMF to be brought in amid mounting opposition in Germany to putting taxpayers' funds at risk. Counterparts, including Sarkozy, said Europe should show its credibility by fixing the crisis on its own with loans to Greece.
The contingency plan is "very satisfying", Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said. "Europe, and Greece with it, emerge stronger from this crisis."
The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 per cent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 per cent last year, the highest in the euro's 11-year history.
"It's a stopgap plan," said Klaus Baader, co-chief eurozone economist at Societe Generale. "It really only meets Greek expectations half way. It'll help get bond yields down, but won't be enough to satisfy the markets."
Greece needs to sell about €10 billion (HK$103 billion) of bonds in coming weeks. About €8.2 billion of debt matures on April 20 and €8.5 billion on May 19, with about €3.9 billion of bills maturing next month.
The budget deficits of all 16 euro nations are forecast to exceed the EU's limit of 3 per cent of gross domestic product this year after the worst recession since at least the second world war. While the euro's German-designed "stability pact" foresees financial penalties for countries that go over the limits, no country has been punished.
Merkel has left open the possibility of pushing wayward countries out of the euro and sought a rewrite of European treaties to impose more fiscal rectitude. All 27 EU countries would have to back such an overhaul. The EU's latest treaty, in force since December, took eight years to negotiate and ratify.
By James G. Neuger
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- European leaders showed signs of bowing to German demands for an International Monetary Fund role in any rescue of debt-stricken Greece, seeking to prevent the fiscal crisis from undermining the euro.
Asserting her clout as head of the European Union’s largest economy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has pushed for the IMF to be brought in, while counterparts, including Spain’s Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said Europe should show its credibility by stanching the crisis on its own with loans to Greece.
“I believe that now we are quite near,” Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Brussels today. “It might be some type of combination of bilateral arrangements and IMF participation.” He declined to speculate whether the EU will make a final decision at the summit, which ends tomorrow.
Signs that Greece may win a financial backstop gave a lift to Greek bonds and nudged the euro up from a 10-month low. The European Central Bank contributed to the rally by announcing a policy reversal ensuring that Greek debt won’t be struck off its collateral list next year.
Greece needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($13 billion) of bonds in coming weeks. About 8.2 billion euros of debt matures April 20 and 8.5 billion euros on May 19, with about 3.9 billion euros of bills maturing in April and May.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that Greece may ultimately get aid from the IMF worth about 20 billion euros over 18 months, according to an e-mailed note today.
‘Mixed Model’
“We are going in the direction -- in case it’s even necessary to help -- toward a mixed model of IMF and bilaterial help” for Greece, Austrian Finance Minister Josef Proell said in Brussels.
The gain in Greek bonds sent the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 6.28 percent, 316 basis points above comparable German debt. That extra borrowing cost has risen from 273 basis points on Feb. 11 when the EU vowed “determined and coordinated action” to stanch the crisis. The euro gained 0.3 percent at $1.3355 at 4:05 p.m. in Brussels.
“We will move ahead whatever decisions are taken,” Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou told reporters today in Brussels. “Greece is determined to deal with its own problems,” he said, adding that “we are on the right track.”
Greek Cuts
The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history.
The summit begins at 5 p.m., though at the last meeting on Feb. 11 a political declaration to back up Greece was made before the official start. A separate gathering of euro-area leaders may be held afterwards, beginning at about midnight.
Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende endorsed an IMF role and Zapatero, the Spanish prime minister, didn’t rule one out, brushing aside criticism that recourse to the Washington- based lender of last resort would expose Europe’s inability to get to grips with the crisis.
“We should start with the IMF because the IMF has the expertise to act,” Balkenende told reporters in Brussels.
Merkel has opposed making a firm aid commitment today and opposed holding a separate get-together of the leaders of the 16 countries using the euro.
“A good European is not necessarily one who rushes to assist,” Merkel told German lawmakers in Berlin today before arriving in Brussels. “A good European is one who abides by the European treaties and national law and thus sees to it that the euro zone’s stability isn’t harmed.”
Sanctions Sought
While the euro’s German-designed “stability pact” foresees financial penalties for countries that go over the limits, no country has been sanctioned since the currency debuted in 1999. The budget deficits of all 16 euro nations are forecast to exceed the EU’s limit of 3 percent of GDP this year after the worst recession since at least World War II.
Merkel has left open the possibility of pushing wayward countries out of the euro and sought a rewrite of European treaties to impose more fiscal rectitude. All 27 EU countries would have to back such an overhaul. The EU’s latest treaty, in force since December, took eight years to negotiate and ratify.
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, a former Danish premier and leader of the Party of European Socialists, said Germany’s proposal for a last-resort Greek aid package of loans from the IMF and EU was a “poor solution.”
Socialist Proposal
The Socialists proposed giving euro-region countries access to the same EU facility that provided loans to Hungary, Romania and Latvia during the financial crisis. Such a decision would require a unanimous EU decision and possibly a change to EU treaties.
“If the only answer from Europe is to ask the IMF to help us, then we are really, really, really poor,” Rasmussen, whose group includes Papandreou and Zapatero, said. “It’s a poor solution for Europe that we cannot manage on our own.”
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet took some pressure off Greece today by extending emergency lending rules, saying its bonds won’t be cut off from ECB refinancing operations next year in case Moody’s Investors Service lowers its rating to a level comparable with other companies.
Trichet’s remarks marked a reversal for the ECB, which said in January that it wouldn’t soften its collateral policy for the sake of a single country. The bank was scheduled to reintroduce pre-crisis rules at the end of 2010.
This is an unusual position for the IMF to be in. There have been occasions before when a borrower pretty much had only fiscal policy to rely on, as in the $30bn Brazil rescue in 2002 when the indexing of Brazil’s debt to the dollar or short-term interest rates precluded the use of monetary policy. But a country actually stuck in a monetary union? The only analogy I could think of was the CFA franc zone - an arrangement whereby a bunch of west African countries adopted a common currency linked to the French franc. But Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute here in DC pointed out that the CFA franc had in fact been forced to devalue in 1994 under IMF pressure. Somehow I can’t see the ECB under Trichet, who doesn’t want IMF involvement in Greece anyway, trying to drive down the euro to help out Athens.
By James G. Neuger and Brian Parkin
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Germany and France, paving the way for a European Union plan to aid Greece, agreed to involve the International Monetary Fund in any potential EU package for the debt-burdened nation, a German Finance Ministry official said.
The shift toward an IMF role before an EU summit that starts tomorrow came a week after euro-area finance ministers agreed to a European framework for a bailout. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who says her taxpayers shouldn’t pay for the region’s biggest budget deficit, then pushed for a greater IMF involvement. That reversal put her at odds with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who called for an EU solution.
“It seems like a U-turn but it’s a sensible solution,” said Julian Callow, chief European Economist for Barclays Capital in London. “The IMF brings credibility and transparency and anything that gives investors a degree of comfort is good. The situation has been from the outset that there is no European mechanism in place to deal with a situation like this. This is what the IMF is there for.”
Franck Louvrier, a spokesman for Sarkozy, wasn’t available to comment and didn’t respond to e-mails.
With allies dropping their resistance to IMF involvement, Merkel agreed to sign on to a statement at the Brussels summit March 25-26 to create a mechanism to aid indebted members, including Greece, Die Welt reported yesterday. A government spokesperson denied that Merkel had agreed to an EU plan.
Greek Bonds Gain
The euro dropped to a 10-month low against the dollar and declined to a record against the Swiss franc. Europe’s single currency slipped as much as 0.7 percent to $1.3407 and fell as low as 1.4233 francs, the lowest since the euro started in 1999. Greek bonds gained yesterday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note falling 14 basis points to 6.34 percent.
While German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble resisted IMF involvement, he told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that turning to the Washington-based lender to help Greece “can and must only be an exception.”
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has been urging EU allies to give details of an aid package to shore up investor confidence and bring down borrowing costs. Greece’s 10-year bonds now yield twice comparable German debt. That financing premium led Papandreou to say on March 19 that Greece, which needs to sell about 10 billion euros ($14 billion) of bonds in coming weeks, is a step away from not being able to borrow and may need to turn to the IMF if European aid isn’t forthcoming.
Three Conditions
Merkel set three conditions for supporting EU assistance another German official said yesterday on condition of anonymity. Aid would be made available only if Greece couldn’t raise funds in financial markets, the IMF makes a substantial contribution and EU sanctions against deficit-limit violators are stiffened 使頑強,使堅定;使強硬.
“The euro area’s ability to impose the rules that it already has have been inadequate,” David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co said. “In some sense you have to bring someone in who does a better job of it. The existing rule book has failed otherwise we wouldn’t be in this mess.”
French pleas for a European package led Michael Meister, parliamentary group finance spokesman for Merkel’s party, to say in an interview: “If France wants an agreement on aid for Greece at the summit then it should go it alone and supply aid itself and not expect Germany to do the same.”
‘Interpreted as Weakness’
Many European officials have resisted calling in the IMF. Falling back on the lender of last resort “could be interpreted as some sign of weakness of our institutions,” ECB Vice President-elect Vitor Constancio said yesterday. The euro has declined almost 6 percent this year on concern that Greece’s financial woes threatened the future of monetary union.
“Markets have considered the problems by individual member states as a de facto test for the single currency,” the Finnish central bank said in a report published in Helsinki today.
The agreement on the IMF role came as EU President Herman Van Rompuy pushed to bridge the differences an aid to Greece and after Sarkozy called for a meeting of euro-region leaders before the Brussels gathering to take up the issue.
Van Rompuy pursued a similar strategy last month, when he delayed the start of the Feb. 11 summit to broker an accord in principle “to take determined and coordinated action” to safeguard the euro area.
‘Positive’ Results
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said that he expected “positive” results from the summit and preferred a European solution for any potential aid. “We want to borrow with better rates and believe this will happen with the implementation of the deficit plan,” he said at a conference in Athens yesterday.
Greece is banking on wage cuts and tax increases to shave the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history. Papaconstantinou said that target is reachable even if the economy shrinks as much as 2 percent this year.
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Advanced economies face “acute” challenges in tackling high public debt, and unwinding existing stimulus measures will not come close to bringing deficits back to prudent levels, said John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
All G7 countries, except Canada and Germany, will have debt-to-GDP ratios close to or exceeding 100 percent by 2014, Lipsky said in a speech yesterday at the China Development Forum in Beijing. Already this year, the average ratio in advanced economies is expected to reach the levels seen in 1950, after World War II, he said. The government debt ratio in some emerging-market nations has also reached a “worrisome level,” he said.
“This surge in government debt is occurring at a time when pressure from rising health and pension spending is building up,” Lipsky said. Stimulus measures account for about one-tenth of the projected debt increase, and rolling them back won’t be enough to bring deficits and debt ratios back to prudent levels.
Rising public debt could lead governments to seek to eliminate it through inflation or even default if they fail to carry out fiscal measures in time, Mohamed A. El-Erian, co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. warned earlier this month. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” a book arguing that unforeseen events can roil markets, said March 12 he is concerned about hyperinflation as governments around the world take on more debt and print money.
Budget Deficit
The U.S. budget deficit widened to a record in February as the government spent more to help revive the economy. The gap grew to $221 billion after a shortfall of $194 billion in February 2009, the Treasury Department said on March 10. The figures indicate the deficit this year will probably surpass the record $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September.
Maintaining public debt at its post-crisis levels could cut potential growth in advanced economies by as much as half a percentage point annually, compared with pre-crisis performance, Lipsky said. The Washington-based IMF, which rescued countries including Pakistan and Iceland during the recession, expects global growth of about 4 percent this year, and a somewhat faster pace in 2011, reflecting expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, he said.
‘Bulging Fiscal Deficits’
“When we look at the picture right now, recovery has been encouraging in both developed and emerging economies, and inflation has remained fairly contained,” said David Cohen, a Singapore-based economist at Action Economics. “The biggest cloud over the outlook would be bulging fiscal deficits. The concern is that the situation in Greece is a dress-rehearsal for problems in bigger economies.”
Greece is racing to cut its borrowing costs as 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of debt comes due in the next two months. In the U.S., President Barack Obama on Feb. 12 signed a bill into law that raised the federal debt limit by $1.9 trillion to $14.3 trillion and placed new curbs on spending in an attempt to prevent this year’s record deficit from becoming worse.
Inflation is “clearly not the answer” as a moderate increase in inflation would have a limited effect, while accelerating inflation would impose major economic costs and create significant risks to a sustained expansion, Lipsky said. Instead, growth-enhancing reforms such as liberalization of goods and labor markets, as well as the removal of tax distortions should be pursued vigorously.
Pension, Tax Reforms
The bulk of the needed debt reduction should be focused on reforms of pension and health entitlements, containment of other primary spending and increased tax revenues and improving both tax policy and tax administration measures, Lipsky said.
For most advanced economies, maintaining fiscal stimulus in 2010 remains appropriate, the IMF official said. Still, fiscal consolidation should begin in 2011 if the recovery occurs at the projected pace. Some actions should be undertaken now by all countries that will need fiscal adjustment, he said.
Lipsky said it was “fully appropriate” for China to maintain its fiscal stimulus through this year, while seeking to rein in its rapid loan growth. He said fiscal consolidation would be appropriate in the U.S., where a higher public savings rate will be required to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
