Russia May Face Debt Crisis Like Greece

Russia may face a debt crisis similar to the one gripping Greece by 2030 unless the government reduces spending, said Sergei Ulatov, the resident World Bank economist in Moscow.

“By 2030 the debt level would be unsustainable like in Greece” if nothing changes, Ulatov said in an interview during the Russia and CIS Capital Markets Forum organized by Euromoney in London today. “Right now, we are mostly helped by oil prices and not by a very prudent macroeconomic policy.”

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin this week urged the government to cap annual spending increases at 4 percent to stabilize public finances and avoid state “paternalism” in running the economy. The budget deficitmay narrow to less than 0.5 percent of gross domestic product this year if oil prices average $115 a barrel, according to Kudrin.

Oil prices tumbled to the lowest level in four months today after theInternational Energy Agency said its members would release crude from strategic reserves. Urals crude, Russia’s benchmark export blend, has averaged about $108 a barrel this year and dropped 5.2 percent to $105.83 today.

By 2015, Russia won’t be able to cover the shortfall in the pension fund even if oil stays at the current break-even level of $115, Ulatov said.

In an e-mailed statement later in the day, the World Bank reiterated its official view on Russia, and said the world’s largest energy exporter will probably have monetary and current- account surpluses this year and in 2012 because of higher oil prices.

"Russia faces no traditional fiscal sustainability issues" because it has low government debt and $520 billion of foreign- currency reserves, the statement said. "Nevertheless, the non- oil fiscal deficit -- which matters more for Russia’s long-term fiscal sustainability -- remains large."

Big infrastructure projects including hosting the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and 2018 World Cup will create an additional burden for the budget, according to the economist Ulatov.

“They will have to borrow,” he said. “They do have this capacity now, but for how long?”

鐵江認沽權 上市前買回

本港政府一直四處游說，希望吸引愈來愈多的海外企業選擇來港上市，俄鋁（486）是第一家登陸本港的俄羅斯企業；在倫敦上市的Petropavlovsk分拆旗下非貴金屬業務鐵江現貨（IRC，1029）來港上市，將成為本港散戶投資者可以染指的第一只俄企新股。公司主席Jay Hambro在接受本報訪問時表示，很高興能與香港投資者近距離接觸。

今年六月，Jay Hambro在香港與記者見面時表示，公司引入和黃（013）前董事總經理馬世民名下私募基金GEMS，以及長實（001）持股50%的CEF成為策略投資者，合計投資6000萬美元，將持有公司6.9%股權。根據協議，上述兩家公司可選擇在兩年後將股權出售予Petropavlovsk，並將獲得每年百分之八的利息。

GEMS和CEF變基礎投資者

不過在鐵江現貨上市前夕，Petropavlovsk回購相關股權。據招股書披露，GEMS和CEF已成為公司的基礎投資者，仍投資6000萬美元，持股約5.3%，設有六個月禁售期。

基礎投資者與上市前策略投資者最大區別在於，基礎投資者入股價為IPO價格，而策略投資者往往能以大幅折讓的股價入股。為何GEMS和CEF要大費周折的如此進行投資呢？

Jay Hambro接受訪問時坦言，港交所（388）和證監會更樂意看到這樣的安排方式，相信這與近期港交所考慮制定新股上市前引入投資者的指引文件有關。鐵江現貨以實際行動予以支持。

與俄鋁有所不同的是，鐵江貨運在香港註冊，並設立總部。鐵江貨運旗下位於俄羅斯遠東的三個礦區，礦石資源總量達8.34億噸，目前僅Kuranakh項目於今年投產，預測2010年度虧損不超過9500萬美元。不過Jay Hambro有信心在可見的未來，實現扭虧為盈。