代工大國優勢不再？

依靠着大量廉價勞動力，自1980年代以來，內地成為全球重要的代工基地。

只不過，時至今日，內地工資水平不斷上漲，勞動力的價格優勢已被其他東南亞國家所取代。大型代工企業開始向海外遷移，小型代工廠則不斷倒閉。再加上富士康（2038）推行的機械化革命，不禁令人懷疑，代工大國對於企業來說，還有什麼值得留戀的地方。

仍具技術優勢

作為一個代工大國，由中國製造的產品可謂包羅萬有。從一些較為低端的成衣、玩具的製造，到一些較為高端的電子產品、軟件研發等。這些行業之所以能在中國蓬勃發展，看中的當然是中國高質素而又便宜的勞動力。

當勞動力成本上升後，這些代工企業到底會出現怎樣的變化呢？辛思維就認為，雖然薪金上升，但中國勞工比起其他東南亞國家仍存在一定的技術優勢。所以，預計未來，一些技術要求不太高的低端產品，向外遷移的情況將會加速出現。

運動用品代工企業裕元（551），近年亦加快了在越南及印尼的生產線建設。而內衣代工企業黛麗斯（333）早前亦表示，已縮減在中國的生產，並計劃擴大現於泰國的生產設施作代替。

內需市場成後盾

至於電子產品方面，雖然技術要求較高，但同時亦高度標準化。守紀律且技術較佳的中國工人，在生產此類產品時較具優勢，只是一旦機械化生產流程形成，便恐怕不再需要依賴中國工人。

既然中國高技術工人亦面臨威脅，又是否代表着這些高增值產業將隨之遷走呢？辛思維認為，暫時不會太快出現。因為高增值行業的勞動力成本相對較少，加上中國內需市場正不斷擴展，企業留在中國生產可方便供應中國市場。內地的物流及基建設施，亦比大部分東南亞其他國家更為完善，所以仍具有一定優勢。

無論如何，一場工業變革目前正在內地展開，低端工人及企業都難免遭遇淘汰。代工廠能否如中央所期望般，轉型為高新科技及擁有自主品牌的企業，當然還要視乎企業各自的修行。

但可以肯定的是，轉型需要付出額外支出，過程艱巨，投資者需要格外留意，慎防買入犧牲風險高的股份。

陣前易帥 中芯何去何從？

還記得不久前，一則國家前領導人離世的傳聞，在香港引起一陣軒然大波。外界擔心的是，高層權力變動會對帶來政策的改變。不過，大至一個國家，小至一家企業，對管理層的變動同樣敏感。中芯國際（981）近日接連出現人事變動及中層員工集體離職，在下游半導體行業不景氣的情況下，晶片製造業的經營環境可以說是兵凶戰危，此時來一個陣前易帥，公司前景不免令人擔心。

或再陷虧損

要了解中芯近期的人事變動問題，便要由今年6月27日原任中芯主席的江上舟離世說起。當董事局正計劃另覓主席之際，行政總裁王寧國因不獲中芯股東會確認執行董事的身份，未能再履行行政總裁職務，向董事會請辭，股東大會其後確認張文義任新行政總裁。

一家正常的企業，每天有人離職及入職，根本不是什麼奇怪的事。不過，原來最高層的人事變動，原來已波及中層管理人員，且影響不只是一兩個人。約百名中層僱員於過去9個月內離職，佔整體中層員工十分之一。人事變動頻頻，不禁令人憂慮，隨着王寧國的離去，會否令近年公司扭虧為盈的改革被推翻，令這個中國最大晶片製造商，再度陷入虧損。

事實上，中芯於2008及2009年度均錄得虧損，王寧國接任行政總裁後，積極拓展銷售網，令去年營業額同比增加45%，成功令公司扭虧為盈，全年賺1310萬美元（1.02億港元）。目前宏觀市場形勢仍面對重重挑戰，中芯在此時突然陣前易帥，並非好時機。

里昂發表的報告顯示，目前下游客戶存貨正在上升，意味生產收緊將減少向晶片商訂貨，對中芯不利。此時公司經歷了主席離世、行政總裁離職及大批中層員工集體「唔撈」，打亂了陣腳，令到今年保持盈利難度增加。

中台股東角力

今次中芯高層的人事變動，與中資股東及台資股東之間的角力，有着密切關係。原行政總裁王寧國，據說就是得到台積電支持的人選，但台積電只有中芯9.7%的股權，未有「話事權」。

公司中資股東陣營中，大唐電信持有19%股權，中投持有19.9%股權（大部分為優先股），上海實業（363）仍持有7.8%，三方持股達45%，中方股東在委任行政總裁一事上有「話事權」。外界認為，獲委任董事長及代理行政總裁的張文義，正正就是獲得中資股東支持。

台積電在今次人事變動處於劣勢，為公司股權變動帶來隱憂。事實上，台積電所以入股中芯，緣於2009年兩者的一場官司，中芯在侵權官司敗訴，以公司股份作為賠償，造就台積電入股的機會。其實，兩家公司嚴格來說可算是競爭對手，所以經過今次一役後，台積電若選擇沽貨離場，可能性亦不低。

中芯目前的情況，與某內地電視機生產商有相似之處。2009年，該生產商引入了新加坡籍行政總裁，進行了一系列改革，加強銷售網絡，重整海外業務，購回可換股債券，令盈利狀況大幅改善。

不過，當新加坡籍管理層離去後，公司爆出為海外資產大幅撥備的消息，令到業績「見紅」，中芯會否步這家公司的後塵？

產品換代遜同業

除了管理層的人事變動問題，中芯在產品換代方面亦不及同業，成為另一隱憂。台積電目前已發展了40納米，甚至28納米晶片的生產，但中芯生產的45納米晶片卻只在起步階段，產品線要到2012年下半年方可入賬，技術方面仍要急起直追。

另一方面，公司設備使用率亦是一個重要考慮，里昂計過數，隨着產品升級，中芯將減少65微米晶片的生產，將令該等12吋晶圓65微米晶片生產線的使用率降至60%，整體使用率預料降至70%，而里昂預測中芯過往要達到90%至92%的設備使用率，才達到收支平衡。

今年6月上旬，中投購入中芯優先股股權，成本價0.54元，乘着中投入股效應，中芯的股價亦一度升至0.9元高位，但隨着效應消退，股價恐怕已由「激情」回歸「平淡」；再加上近期的人事糾紛，公司前景令人憂慮，難怪里昂近日發表報告，給予0.45元的目標價；大摩則看得更淡，把目標價大幅削減至0.29元。

中歐貿易角力 鋼管冷煤機熱

《上海證券報》報道，歐盟打算指控中國無縫鋼管商進行反傾銷，並徵收48%至71.5%的懲罰性關稅，石油設備成為歐洲對中國出口業「開砲」的對象，前景並不明朗，反而受到需求帶動的煤機製造商，可看高一線。

無縫鋼管商被歐美指控為反傾銷企業，可說是「公說公有理，婆說婆有理」。這些鋼管商當然不是生產夜總會跳「鋼管舞」所用的鋼管，而是生產跨境運輸的石油管和天然氣管材，多接中石油集團及中海油集團的訂單，獲得國企的補貼，是很自然的事，但這卻被歐美指控為傾銷。

歐美掣肘多 防華企操控

另外，這是由於內地生產商近年技術進步神速，加上內地勞工成本低，漸有生產優勢，銷售額不斷擴大，加上中央於年前便提出了大型輸油管建設，包括由勝利油田輸往中原地區的油管，由哈薩克輸往北京及上海等地的天然氣管道，令到這批鋼管商多了很多訂單。中國企業的興起，卻叫歐美各國感到不安，皆因輸油管對歐美能源供應穩定有戰略作用，歐美各國不願見到石油設備供應操縱在中國企業之手。

故此，歐盟與美國均打出保護主義的旗號，美國早於2009年11月向中國企業徵收99%的懲罰性關稅，涉及32億美元產品。在2008年，山東墨龍（568）輸往美國的產品佔總營業額22.6%，涉及生意額5.7億元人民幣，是中國以外最大市場，及至2009年，山東墨龍輸往美國佔總生意額比率大幅降至11.6%，生意額減至2.4億元（人民幣．下同）。

部分中國廠商為求另覓蹊徑，進軍歐美市場。在美國提出保護條例後，安徽鋼管商安徽天大（839）去年9月便決定引入法國藍籌鋼管製造商Vallourec入股，佔總權益39%。市場人士估計，天大有意利用Vallourec的網絡，其至使用Vallourec的品牌，曲線進入美國。不過，這些中國製的產品能否繞過歐美的貿易壁壘，尚未有定例。

無疑，鋼管商面對歐美的制裁，的確少了一條門路，投資時宜了解歐美市場佔它們的生意比例，主打內地和中東市場的天大管材、珠江鋼管（1938），以及生產有縫鋼管的勝利管道（1080），所受的影響較微。辛思維認為，歐美國家對無縫鋼管有動作，取得甜頭的話，不排除會伸延至海上石油探鑽設備，連鑽石器材也受到牽連，成為不利該行業的一個重要的因素。

在開採資源設備板塊中，煤機股應該是較佳的選擇。除了內地本身的需求外，鄰國蒙古也對煤機需求上升。蒙古焦煤（975）資料顯示，2009年輸往中國的蒙古煤炭的凈額達到2810萬噸，而2008年的數字僅為200萬噸，開採量大幅增長，加上更多蒙古煤企市場化，對機械的需求增加。

打造大煤企 機械化普及

三一國際為內地最大的挖煤機生產商，2010年營業額達到26.8億元，按年增長41%；另一企業國際煤機（1683）的營業額也達到19.4億元，按年增長28%。

內地自2008年起展開煤炭整合，國家銳意打造約十個億噸級產量的煤炭集團，要大規模生產，提高機械化程度不可少。以前，山西一帶煤老闆擁有小煤礦，由於範圍小，地方面積有限，根本不能用上大型的掘進機，對煤機的需求自然小。如今地方煤礦給整合了，變成了較大面積的煤礦，加上大企業資金較穩定，反而機械化符合經濟效益。如此一來，令到煤機擁有廣闊的發展空間。

相對於鋼管企業，煤機商的主要市場為內地及蒙古，內地當然不會貿然對本土企業實行制裁，至於蒙古方面，由於依賴煤炭機械進口，與中國的貿易是和諧合作多於角力，為煤機股創造美好的經營環境，可留意當中的投資潛力。

Factories given lower energy use targets

The mainland's power output rose faster than expected in August, reflecting accelerated industrial production growth and hot weather throughout much of the nation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. But output is set to slow in the coming months as autumn sets in and external demand weakens.
Power output jumped 12.6 per cent to 390.33 billion kilowatt hours, the statistics bureau said. It was 1.1 percentage points higher than the 11.5 per cent year-on-year growth recorded in July.
The number was in line with the August industrial production growth figure of 13.9 per cent, which was released by the statistics authority over the weekend.
"Both power and industrial figures beat our expectations," said Li Huiyong, chief economist with Shenyin Wanguo Securities.
"Overall, the trend will be downward, though it is difficult to predict how much slower the growth will turn out to be."
For the first eight months of this year, power output climbed 17.2 per cent.
The statistics bureau released a string of economic numbers on Saturday, triggering heated debates about the outlook for the world's second-biggest economy.
Industrial output was among the bright spots, but economic analysts pointed out that it would be short-lived due to Beijing's curbs on energy-intensive industries.
"While the rebound in August activity data was very encouraging, recent evidence suggests more headwinds since early September as many local governments stepped up the closure and suspension of many heavy industrial producers," Goldman Sachs said in a report.
"Under the close inspection and pressure from the central government, local governments started to suspend industrial electricity supply to meet the energy consumption and environmental targets in the 11th five-year plan."
Cheng Siwei, a former vice-chairman of the National People's Congress, said yesterday that Beijing is strong enough to enforce its target of reducing energy intensity.
Analysts also expect slower export growth because of shrinking overseas demand, which is likely to dent power production and industrial output. In August, fixed-asset investment grew 24.2 per cent from a year earlier, while real-estate investment last month grew 34.1 per cent from a year ago.
Housing prices in the mainland's 70 major cities remained nearly unchanged in August from the previous month.
Beijing is expected to accelerate the construction of lower-cost houses for low-income residents, a move that may help to curb the red-hot property market.
It is expected that fixed-asset investment growth will slow in an orderly pace as Beijing attempts to achieve a "soft landing," Li said.
China's economy has shown increasing signs of asset bubbles since the beginning of the year after commercial banks granted 9.6 trillion yuan (HK$11.01 trillion) in loans last year to support infrastructure construction. Regulators set a full-year loan quota of 7.5 trillion yuan for 2010.

Manufacturers nervous ahead of US yuan report

Mainland-based Hong Kong manufacturers are anxiously awaiting the fallout of an April 15 report from the United States Treasury Department which may label China a "currency manipulator" and trigger punitive sanctions against Chinese exports to the US.

Expectations the report may condemn China for depressing the value of the yuan to help its exporters last week saw Vice-Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan travel to Washington to lobby US business leaders on the benefits to global trade of a stable yuan exchange rate and the risks of a trade spat between the countries.

Earlier, Premier Wen Jiabao said China did not want a currency and trade war, while Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said the yuan exchange rate was not the root cause of the trade surplus with the US.

Caught in the middle of the war of words are mainland-based Hong Kong manufacturers making products destined for the US market. They now worry that the currency war could choke the nascent recovery in mainland exports.

Among those raising fears of a trade war is William Fung Kwok-lun, the managing director of Li & Fung, the 104-year-old trading house that sources consumer merchandise from factories on the mainland, India and Indonesia and exports the products to the US and Europe.

"If China is found to be manipulating the currency, the US will impose punitive duties on imports," Fung said. "It will become a trade war, which will have a disastrous impact on the trade industry."

Such an outcome is by no means certain, however, and although the US Treasury is highly likely to label China a currency manipulator, the move will be "more symbolic than substantive", according to former US trade representative Susan Schwab.

Schwab told China Daily last week such a label was not a trigger for any action other than consultations.

But some economists in the US have criticised China for undervaluing the yuan by as much as 40 per cent, giving its exporters an unfair edge, penalising imports and helping it accumulate huge trade surpluses.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the global financial crisis, believed a Treasury report that found China guilty of currency manipulation could prompt US lawmakers to call for punitive sanctions, rating such an outcome a 50 per cent chance, given the 10 per cent unemployment rate in the US.

"That could lead to a trade war. Absolutely," Roubini said on Bloomberg Television.

A trade war will be "a lose-lose situation", particularly for tens of thousands of Hong Kong exporters in the "factory of the world" - the Pearl River Delta - said Danny Lau Tat-pong, the chairman of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association. "The higher the punitive tariffs, the more expensive the Chinese imports, which will do good to no parties. If the US really takes action next month, the immediate impact will be Hong Kong exporters losing orders to other cheaper regions."

On the cards in such a scenario will be a shift by American buyers to sourcing imports from lower-cost production bases such as Bangladesh, India and Vietnam.

Some Hong Kong exporters said US congressmen were naive to think that revaluing yuan would reduce Chinese imports and revive labour-intensive industries in their market. This was because many of the products that could be affected were no longer made in the US.

China has kept the yuan rate largely the same against the US dollar since July 2008, at a range between 6.82 and 6.83. This followed a gradual appreciation of about 21 per cent against the greenback that began in July 2005, when Beijing began a managed float of the currency's peg to the dollar.

"The rhetoric辭令,言語 is getting more hostile懷敵意 的;不友善的 in the US," said Iris Lam, a business promotion director of shoe exporter Onlen Fairyland (HK). "If the US stamps the label of currency manipulator on China, it will be like stabbing 刺 itself with a dagger."

Lam's comments were intended as a warning that US shoppers would be the one to suffer from such a move. But irrespective of the outcome, the dispute sent yet another wake-up call to Hong Kong exporters, which should diversify markets by tapping into the mainland's robust domestic market for consumer goods, Lam said.

"Exporters should not only explore new markets, but also diversify production bases geographically, for example, through relocation of factories to other emerging countries," she added.

US exports to China were flat at about US$70 billion last year, which made China the third-biggest market for US exporters. The US is the second-largest export market for China.

However, China is a top creditor of the US and held US$889 billion worth of US treasuries as of the end of January, the latest US data showed.