京城嚴治路堵塞 轎車成眾矢之的

今年北京實施號稱「史上最嚴的治堵措施」，包括搖號限牌、提高泊車費用和限制外來車入城等，冀紓緩當地交通擠塞。日前，市政府就來一次半年總結，初步肯定政策成效。

北京市交通委員會主任劉小明向市人大常委會提交了《關於進一步緩解交通擁堵工作情況的報告》，指出上半年市內塞車有所改善，五環路內上下班繁忙時段，汽車平均行駛速度提高了10%，達到每小時24公里，每日平均塞車時間縮短至1小時5分鐘，減幅達50%。

但同樣是北京市交委，上月一次網上民調，結果卻顯示北京市民的感受，同劉小明的講法有頗大出入，當時逾半受訪北京網民認為，塞車問題「沒有」緩解。這種反差可能是去年年底，大批收到風聲的民眾一窩蜂趕在限牌政策推出前購車所做成，使到今天在北京馬路上行駛的汽車總數，比去年6月激增了60萬，達到464萬輛。

限牌政策不會放鬆

治堵新政真正成效，相信要待下半年新車數字穩定後才會浮現，市政府規定今年新增車牌最多24萬個，但期內汽油價格居高不下和車位成本急增，令北京車主百上加斤，據《新京報》了解，搖號中籤者，實際購車率不足三成。

雖然交通擠塞有望改善，但別憧憬限牌政策會放鬆，事關北京市交委在《報告》講明小轎車將是治堵新政下一個目標。目前北京370多萬輛私人汽車當中，74%屬於小轎車，其佔用道路資源比重是公交車的七倍，被指是塞車罪魁禍首，未來北京將大力發展集體運輸系統，降低小轎車的使用量。值得留意的是，北京針對小轎車用量，首當其衝的肯定是主打1.6公升或以下引擎小轎車的國產車廠。隨着二線城市貴陽率先仿效北京的治堵措施，北京模式極有可能複製到各大城市去，內地客車品牌的前景未敢樂觀，投資者只要比較一下生產中低檔汽車的吉利（175）和生產寶馬房車（BMW）的華晨中國（1114），兩者過去半年的股價走勢，已經可以找到投資答案。

比亞迪──股神的遺憾？

比亞迪（1211）近月股價經歷了由「天堂」跌入「凡間」的過程，挾着畢非德入股之勢，比亞迪曾經得到股民的「膜拜」。不過，公司接連派出令人失望的業績，新近又遇到法國夥伴退出汽車融資業務，聲勢不如前，似乎看淡者佔了上風。

畢非德初入股時，股民都有「點解會係佢？」之疑問，但之後比亞迪股價飛升，投資者又以「點解唔買佢？」去回應忠實質疑者的理由，到底這隻股份將會帶給股神榮譽，還是遺憾。

比亞迪近日失守27元關口，一年以來股價急挫了53%。管理層證實股神近期並沒有沽出股份。好友認為，自從入股以來，股神一直不離不棄，足以證明比亞迪有潛質。另外，比亞迪上月發行了A股，募集約14.2億元人民幣，減輕了資金壓力。

就在好友積極找出利好因素的同時，公司又傳出負面消息。公司指與法國設備租賃公司（CGL）合作發展融資租賃設備的計劃告吹，原因是CGL認為中國汽車市場風險正在加大。

彭博資料顯示，研究比亞迪的銷售方分析員（Sell-Side Analyst）中，只有兩位給予「買入」評級，七位給予「持有」評級，十三位給予「沽售」評級，看淡的比例達到六成。大行之中，高盛和瑞信分別只給21.4元及15.5元的目標價，遠低於比亞迪現價。

券商唱淡的其中一個理由，是對公司現金流的憂慮。里昂統計，公司於2010年度共花費了8.02億元人民幣，並以「燒銀紙」（Burning Cash）來形容；雖然公司在A股市場募集了資金，但仍有120億元的短線貸款需要償還，未來融資壓力不少。

電能車的建設問題，成為集團新能源車銷售的一大限制。現時，在比亞迪的大本營深圳和廣州，分別只有不足十個公共充電站，電能車要在街道上快速充電然後上路，比較困難，限制了銷售。

品牌建立未如理想

比亞迪在品牌建立方面，仍有很大的改進空間。例如，新款車的設計被批評為老土，廣告攻勢並不突出，未能在中產客戶心中建立起認同感，令銷情大打折扣。另外，汽車銷售團隊發揮不足，為了催谷銷售，比亞迪曾大量聘請銷售人員，銷售額亦曾經急升。不過，當家電下鄉的補貼結束後，比亞迪卻無以為繼，售價下跌成本上升，今年第一季的營業額跌超過一成，純利按年大減84%。

美銀美林最近發表的報告指出，由於小型汽車的補貼取消，加上比亞迪的新S6 SUV車款還未推出，銷售中的F3又失去動力，看淡其銷售前景，把2011及2012年的銷售預測降至約53萬及59萬輛。里昂指出，整個比亞迪集團的業務包括電能車、太陽能設備、手機組裝等，資源呈分散現象，最終或會陷入「張張刀沒有一把利」的地步。

比亞迪曾是國家高新企業新星，自主汽車踏上國際舞台的希望。但環顧中國並非只得比亞迪一家有力衝出中國，東風（489）、華晨（1114）、吉利（175）及長城（2333）汽車均正在自主研發新車款，有力成為世界一線汽車股。

股神透過行政總裁王傳福表明，暫時無意沽售該股股份。對於巴郡來說，比亞迪只是龐大投資組合中的一隻持股，且每股成本價僅8元，賬面上仍有不俗利潤。不過，正如畢非德自己說，他一生人並非沒有做錯過決定，只是做得比其他人少而已，股神也曾慨嘆於美國紡織業處於夕陽時期買入巴郡的前身，當初冒險進入自己不熟悉的新科技領域，帶來的是佳績還是劣績？且讓時間來證明。

汽車零件行業增長迅速

最近與一家從事金屬貿易的廠商交流，該名工業家向辛思維表示，日本3月發生大地震期間，本來屬於公司的上游供應商向公司求助，但一、兩個月過後，日本汽車零件商的供應已迅速地恢復過來。

從事代理日本汽車業務的大昌行（1828）指出，受到日本3月大地震的影響，集團第一季轎車受到顯著的影響，但日本廠商展現出很強的應變能力，踏入6月，情況已穩定下來，公司預期主要零件的供應鏈，於第三季可恢復。

受到中國銷售減慢及日本供應斷裂的影響，一度衝擊日系汽車相關股。不過，隨着日本汽車業進一步重回軌道，值得重新檢視這些股份。市場上的一些變化，值得留意。

豐田與汽車零件商敏實（425）訂立協議，於嘉興成立了一間合營，專注於零件業務，這是否豐田轉移生產線到中國的一步棋，值得跟進。

新近上市的汽車零件股雙樺（1241）掛牌後的良好表現，振奮了半新股的投資氣氛。雙樺招股之初反應一般，只有不足一倍的超額認購。但上市後卻連連上升，周四收1.64元，較招股價1.16元高出41%，出乎大眾的意外。

辛思維早前有談過雙樺，以銷售額計算，是中國最大的冷氣設備和第二大暖風設備生產商。過去三年營業額複合增長24%，達到5.92億元（人民幣．下同）；純利三年複合增長38%，至8154萬元。從雙樺公布的財務報表看來，上市前的財務情況健康，負債對股東資金比率由2008年的141%，降至2010年的89%，看來上市並非為償還急債。

不過，連升多天，雙樺的估值已趨正常化，假設集團明年純利有20%增長，預測市盈率將達到11至13倍，與敏實的12至13倍相若。

若其他零件市場恢復正常，生產替代玻璃的信義（868）亦應受惠，靠汽車發動機等零部件翻身的德昌電機（179），業績就給予投資者一份驚喜。2010年德昌汽車產品的銷售額達到11. 5億美元，較2009年的9.34億美元增長23%，純利增1.05倍至1.82億美元。

原本專注於工商用產品的德昌，數年前進軍汽車產品市場，現時集團於該板塊的收入，已經超越原來工商用產品設備，相信可為集團帶來新的增長動力。

單程收費「側側膞」北控成眾矢之的

近期在傳媒的壓力下，內地官方掀起高速公路收費清理行動，雖然本港較大型的公路股受到合約保護，預計未必受到太大影響。只不過，參考內地傳媒揭發的個案，發現高速公路除了正規的收費之外，部分還出現一些灰色收費。例如北控（392）旗下的北京首都機場高速公路就被指將單程收費「偷雞」變成雙程收費，香港股民更被指因此得益過千萬元。類似個案會否出現在其他公路股身上，行業短期前景難免令人產生疑慮。

其實首都機場高速公路早於2009年10月便開始實施單程收費，車主憑即日去程票尾，回程便可免費。不過，近期央視記者卻批評，有關政策執行不力，職員沒有口頭提醒，有關告示牌亦不明顯，令不少車主多付一程10元人民幣的費用，直斥相關公司在斂財之嫌。

始終減收費對企業來說，並非一件好事，所以企業難免「側側膞」。

不過，若說北控的單程收費計劃沒有執行，又確實有點兒冤枉，從公司去年年報中，已可以得到答案。

公司年報中指出，首都機場高速公路2010年已全年實施單向收費，所以全年的付費車流量，由2009年的3017萬輛次，減至去年的2803萬輛次，通行費收入同比下降6.1%，約3.12億港元，股東應佔溢利為8500萬港元，同比下降21.6%。當然，若沒有「側側膞」的情況，不排除收入降幅可能更明顯。

前景一般 北控心淡

「側側膞」的行為到底為香港股東帶來多大好處，辛思維也無法計得清。不過，目前傳媒大肆宣傳之下，相信多收費的情況難以持續，預計今年相關收入將進一步下降，難怪北控亦看淡收費公路業務。公司年報中明言，首都機場高速公路單向收費，車流量及利潤下降。公司旗下另一條收費公路，深圳石觀路前景亦一般。缺乏發展前景下，集團有意退出公路業務。

目前，事件已引發出一場公路收費不公的風波，各地傳媒亦爭相揭發不同公路的「惡行」。交通運輸部、國家發改委、財政部等多個部委所展開的收費公路專項清理工作，未知會否令其他上市公路股受到影響，仍值得投資者密切留意。

比亞迪與時間競賽

畢非德愛股比亞迪（1211）近期股價低迷，疲弱的銷情固然是一個原因，另一個利淡因素是比亞迪的電池技術被同業趕上，各大廠之間的電動車製造，變成一場跟時間賽跑的遊戲。

兩會圓滿謝幕後，新能源汽車新一個「十年計劃」在市場廣為流傳，綜合內地傳媒報道及大行理解，電動車政策包括以下數個方面：一、政策包括中央政府提供補貼；二、調低購買新能源汽車買家之稅項；三、對於電動車生產商，把銷售增值稅率由17%調低至13%；四、對於新能源汽車生產商的融資採取較寬鬆的態度。

不過，行業龍頭比亞迪股價，自3月份隨大市調整了17%，沒有受到市場好消息的提振。此前，政府亦提供一系列推動電動車的措施，包括批准100部電能出租車在深圳嘗試行駛，以及對比亞迪部分研發項目作出補貼。但這些利好消息並沒有刺激到比亞迪的銷量，4月份總汽車銷售4.01萬輛，基本上與3月份持平，按年則跌11%。

銷量不濟是股價疲弱的一個因素，外資品牌的競爭更叫市場對比亞迪增添不明朗因素。比亞迪早前之所以在新能源產業的競賽上領先，皆因在生產鎳電池上掌握到先進技術，所使用電池可在短時間內充電，儲滿電後可行走較長距離。以e6車款為例，基本充電時間為1.5小時，充滿電後可走250公里。

比亞迪電動車由可二次充電的鋰電池所驅動，今次中央欲取締鉛酸電池生產商，集團並不受影響。不過，由於各大車廠近兩年加快研發電池，技術已不為比亞迪所獨有，好像豐田汽車副社長內山田竹志在一公開場合表示，準備大量生產外插式充電的混能車Prius（普銳斯），表示停頓了一年半的銷售計劃已重新啟動；另一大廠本田的純電動車計劃也準備就緒，對於電池技術似乎已了然於胸。

除了推出稅務優惠和補貼外，新能源汽車的前景亦繫於政府如何協助興建充電設備。業內人士指出，截至去年底為止，在新能源汽車示範城市之一的深圳，現時設有的充電站不足10個，電動車要找地方充電仍不方便，似乎還未能應付大量電動車使用的需求。

比亞迪的股價由「天庭」回到「凡間」，估值回歸到十來倍的預測市盈率，面對強手急起直追，且看比亞迪有沒有能耐作出突破，創造另一個銷售高峰。

道路需求命繫車市

公路股增長與汽車行業密切相關，目前內地汽車銷量雖然明顯放緩，不過當中亦出現一些逆市奇葩。受惠於自駕遊熱潮，SUV在市場受到熱捧，帶動銷量上升，成為今年平平無奇的車市中一絲曙光。上月舉行的上海國際車展，內地品牌展出的全新SUV車款多達11部，可見該市場的競爭漸趨白熱化。雖然眾多品牌爭逐SUV市場，但始終市場龍頭東風（489）及側重SUV業務的長汽（2333），在這股熱潮中佔優。

內地汽車市場今年受刺激政策減退影響，4月份整體銷量表現低迷，較今年3月跌逾15%，比去年同期跌0.25%，自2009年2月以來更首次出現負增長。不過，SUV的銷量卻上升，單計4月份，就比去年同期增長18.91%，累計1-4月份，增長率更達到38.94%，成為逆市奇葩。從銷售數據反映，內地車主對SUV的需求殷切。

SUV車類銷量的急速增長，已吸引多家車廠「中途出家」，陸續推出首款SUV應市。比亞迪（1211）上周就推出首款SUV車型S6，更以不足9萬元（人民幣．下同）的低價發售。吉利（175）及華晨（1114）的SUV新車亦在展覽會上露面，預計今年正式推出市場。至於市場關注的行業龍頭長汽和東風，今年都會有新SUV車款，其中長汽更會在年內推出6款。

事實上，SUV銷售收入已成為長汽的主要增長動力。公司去年SUV銷售收入增123.2%，而SUV銷售收入佔整體收入增加9個百分點至43%。SUV受歡迎，亦令長汽去年多賺226%至30.4億元，收入增79%至221.7億元。毛利率由2009年的17.3%提高4.6個百分點至21.9%。在內地平淡的車市，發展SUV業務，已成為市場突破點。

看好長汽的同時，亦不要遺忘市場一哥東風。論銷售數量，東風去年以24.5萬輛SUV力壓長汽的13.6萬輛成市場龍頭。不過，SUV只是東風的第二大業務，不及長汽的比重高，即使銷量大增，對公司業績所帶來的正面影響，亦不及長汽。

從SUV市場的場長，可以看到內地車市並非全面一片的悲觀。加上在觀光消費增長的帶動下，汽車需求仍旺盛。不過道路配套未完善，才窒礙了汽車銷量的增長。未來在國家加強道路建設及發展的情況下，汽車及公路行業的中期前景不必看淡。

日本車受挫 中資車股現契機

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經歷9級大地震，日本製造業損失慘重，包括豐田、本田、日產在內的多家汽車企業相繼宣布停產。向來在全球市場佔據領導地位的日本汽車，將面對產量大降的情況，擴大中國廠房的產量，或成為日本車企其中一個應對方法。但相信，短期內汽車市場供應缺口仍巨大。近期內地汽車銷量下降，中國車企普遍存在產能過剩問題，能否藉此機會拓展出口市場，將成為汽車股的重要發展契機。

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今次受地震及海嘯影響，豐田、日產及本田在日本的廠房均宣布停工，除了影響日本的汽車生產，對於需要依靠日本進口汽車零部件進行生產的印度汽車生產市場，更帶來極大影響，或需要從其他國家的工廠調配資源，否則必將陷於停頓。

只不過，在中國的日資車廠，則可以完全置身度外，自給自足。其中一個要感謝的，當然是中國政府。只因過去多年來，中國政府為了保護本國車企，以及取得海外車企的技術，大加汽車入口稅，迫使日本車企將整個生產工序在中國進行，以降低成本。

所以目前，不論日本車企在日本發生什麼事，日資公司在中國的車廠，均可以保持正常運作，供給中國市場。甚至可以加大生產，以應付海外市場的需求。

中國車企出口少

據統計，2010年，日本國內汽車產量為962.6萬輛，排名全球第二，僅次於中國，在全球汽車總產量中約佔13.4%。若加上，日本公司海外汽車產量1300多萬輛，日本汽車品牌全球產量近2300萬輛，約占全球汽車總產量的30%。只不過，去年日本汽車銷量323萬輛，可見日本車企85%的產量都是供給其他海外市場。

相反中國市場，2010年全年銷量為1806萬輛，產量為1826.47萬輛。數字包括日本企業在華的生產，可見中國汽車市場目前仍處於淨入口的階段。雖然近年來，中國車企均希望走出去，但奈何一直未能打破打入歐美市場，頂多只能進入東南亞及非洲等新興市場。

以本港的上市車企為例，東風（489）及華晨（1114）的汽車銷售量都是100%在中國內地，吉利汽車（175）母公司雖然已收購沃爾沃（富豪），多了一個海外「親戚」，但暫時公司銷往歐洲及澳洲等海外市場的業務，仍不到5%。眾多車企中，長城（2333）的海外市場佔比最大，達到15%，包括伊拉克，南非、俄羅斯、澳洲等。

至比亞迪（1211）方面，公司在內地拓展新能源汽車市場暫時未見起色，銷量不振。近日公布的業績更顯示，去年汽車銷量只有52萬輛。公司去年初訂下80萬輛銷量目標，及後來修定為60萬輛後，但最終仍未達標，而股東應佔溢利亦減少33.48%至25.23億元人民幣。業績雖令人失望，但公司仍野心十足，並計劃提高中高端車型的市場的佔有率，以及加大海外市場的開拓力度。

雖然美好願望未必能成真，正如電動車至今未得到內地消費者接受，所以比亞迪的海外市場夢，投資者暫時還是先聽聽，聽其言後，再觀其行，看看是否能夠打破中國車企的宿命。

國內銷量增長放慢

但顯然，目前日本汽車生產受阻，對於中國車企來說，應是一個可以值得爭取的機會。將一些較優質的中高檔車推出海外市場，利用中國的廉價優勢，薄利多銷，先打響名堂。

尤其今年以來，中央已取消鼓勵汽車消費的政策，各地政府亦對塞車問題感到頭痛。市場普遍預計，今年中國汽車銷量增長放緩，大約只有10-20%的增長，所以，車股受到不少投資者唾棄，股價跌個不停。

在公路建設還未追上需求時，相信中國汽車增長仍將保持緩慢增長。車股要找尋出口，必定需要加強拓展出口市場。今次日本的地震，為企業提供了一個好機會，能否把握得到，就要再觀察各企業的行為了。以目前的情況看，有海外「親戚」的吉利還是值得被看高一線，不過結果是否如此，大家拭目以待。

比亞迪降價再裁員 營銷策略惹疑惑

被喻為新能源汽車「明日之星」的比亞迪（1211），在上月汽車銷售量下跌消息公布後，隨即高調宣布對旗下五款「主打」汽車型號進行首次官方降價，其行動並不令人感到意外。正當外界普遍預期，減價促銷可望令比亞迪的汽車銷售量得到改善時，市場卻傳出集團正展開裁員計劃，部分汽車銷售部門更大幅裁減三分二的員工。比亞迪的汽車營銷及人手架構策略，實在令人大感不惑，莫非管理層也看淡未來前景？

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對於汽車業務，比亞迪管理層一直寄予厚望，2010年目標銷售量原先高達80萬輛，去年中才因應實際銷售狀況而下調至60萬輛。不過，管理層的願望最終仍要落空，雖然去年全年汽車銷售量錄得約16%的增長，但整體數目僅得51.98萬輛，與目標銷售量有8萬輛的差距。

經過內地汽車行業去年大幅擴充產能之後，生產商今年出售存貨壓力只會有增無減。再者，踏入2011年，內地取消汽車購置稅優惠、汽車下鄉、以舊換新補貼等政策，北京更提出限購令，農曆新年長假期前購買汽車高峰期過後，未來數月的汽車銷情並不樂觀。

汽車銷量增長放緩

內地乘用車銷售量增長果然呈現放緩的迹象，1月按年增長16%至153萬輛，但主要屬於去年12月訂單推延至1月交付所致，而16%的增長幅度也明顯地比去年全年的33%增長率為低。

春節過後，比亞迪進一步公布1月份的汽車銷售量，期間售出汽車同比下跌15%，至約5.2 萬輛，與競爭對手吉利（175）及東風（489）錄得增長的汽車銷售量相比，立刻變得黯然失色，隨即被內地媒體揶揄為「唯一銷售下跌的汽車股」。

為了挽救銷售量下跌的情況，比亞迪於本月18日宣布首次官方降價，下調旗下五款主要汽車型號的售價，幅度介乎5%至20%。其中，F0車型最高降價5000元（人民幣，下同），F3最高降價1萬元，F3R最高下調6000元，G3最高降價1.5萬元，F6最高減價1萬元。

辛思維相信，比亞迪在銷售量持續未能達到目標，但產能卻不斷擴張的情況之下，大幅降低旗下五款主要汽車型號的官方售價，目的是為了刺激銷售量回升，並且搶佔更大的市場份額。

國內自主品牌的汽車競爭力，主要集中在10萬元以下的小排量、經濟型汽車，目標客戶對於價格的敏感度較高。內地取消汽車購置稅優惠、汽車下鄉、以舊換新補貼等政策，對於自主品牌汽車銷售量的影響較大。

據了解，其他國內自主品牌包括吉利、海馬、奇瑞、長城等，對於比亞迪的官方降價行動，仍然採取按兵不動的策略，並聲稱不會高舉價格旗幟搶佔市場，反映市場正在觀望降價的效果。

此時此刻，市場卻傳出比亞迪在春節前已經悄悄啟動裁員行動，部分汽車銷售部門更已經裁減約三分二的員工。據報道，集團汽車銷售的重要部門A2區，主要負責湖北、湖南等省份若干車型的銷售工作，年前的銷售人員還有300多人，但在剛結束的深圳坪山培訓活動完結後，只剩下107人。

個別部門裁員三分二

另外，集團部分員工也被變相裁員，有些員工被派往還沒有生產出車型、沒有任何銷售管道的C網，一個月給予1000多元的底薪，變相逼使員工請辭。而集團另一個大區的銷售管理人員亦證實，其管轄區域的銷售人員有一半被裁掉，後勤人員的裁員比例亦達到20%。

辛思維認為，比亞迪因應疲弱的銷售量，降價促銷去搶市場份額，是正常的商業決定。在比亞迪降價促銷之下，而競爭對手又按兵不動之同時，外界普遍預期集團的汽車銷售量將會得到改善。此時此刻，集團卻選擇裁減銷售人手，其汽車營銷及人手架構策略的安排，實在是令人費解，莫非管理層也看淡未來的銷售前景？

前景惹遐想 車聯網成新炒作概念

物聯網概念再次成為炒作對象。海爾電器（1169）上周五宣布成功研製物聯網冷氣機，是繼冰箱之後，又一電器加入物聯網陣容。雖然產品未推出，但已吸引資金炒作。電器之後，物聯網下一步將會擴展至汽車。上月底舉行的中國國際物聯網大會上，突然拋出汽車物聯網（又稱車聯網）概念，而該項目將被列為內地重大項目。據消息指出，相關內容已上報國務院，首期撥款有望達百億元。車聯網概念近日成為內地的炒作主題，但香港相關股份卻未有異動。

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車聯網概念橫空出世。有分析認為，物聯網將是第三次科技革命，而車聯網更會顛覆汽車業。剛過去的上海世博會上，辛思維就見過上汽的通用汽車館內展示的車聯網前景：路上沒有交通燈，沒有塞車，沒有交通意外，只有高速行駛的汽車。

其實，車聯網並非新事物，只是智能交通的進化版，運作原理就是通過裝在車上的電子標簽與道路兩旁的無線射頻識別（RFID）讀取器互相交換訊息，當中包括傳感器技術、通訊技術、數據處理技術、網絡技術、訊息發布技術等。透過這些技術建立一個實時、高效能的交通運輸綜合系統。

外國先行中國後追

根據內地傳媒引述瑞銀分析員劉東升的介紹，車聯網是物聯網分支領域的一項重要應用，目前在外國受到關注，被認為是射頻物聯網技術的一項重大應用。情況就像互聯網將各自獨立的電腦連接，而車聯網則是將汽車互相串連，實現智能交通網。

美國和日本的車聯網技術較中國先行，美國IBM提倡的智慧地球（Smart Planet）已經發展成2000億美元的市場，而汽車佔了當中重要一環。美國互聯網搜尋器Google早前公開正在研發的無人駕駛汽車項目，利用人工智能技術加上全方位環境感應器，讓汽車自動行駛，目的是優化道路的使用，也是車聯網的技術之一。另外，日本的VICS系統已經形成廣告、增值等商業模式。

處處皆是投資機會

反觀，中國的車聯網還在紙上談兵階段，各項環節也未成形。不過，有個別公司與外國企業合作，如中國電信（728）夥拍通用汽車，透過3G網絡為用戶提供車載訊息服務，是車聯網發展的第一步。

其實，物聯網是「十二五」規劃重點扶持產業，而車聯網是三大重點項目之一，產業鏈的投資機會將會隨之而來。政府將通過政策引導、財政補貼、初始投資的方式發展車聯網，前期投資近百億元。根據外國經驗，車聯網將分為汽車導航、物聯網設備、汽車電子、交通資訊化、車聯網應用等類別的子板塊。

其實，物聯網概念自去年提出以來，市場經過多番炒作。不過，內地今次的車聯網炒作，是首次針對個別行業的物聯網炒作。由於車聯網涉及的技術和應用範圍廣闊，處處都是投資機會。但是，內地的車聯網相關產業只是剛剛起步階段，甚至連行業標準也未有，因此雖然行業規模大，前景美好，但還未看見行業模式和盈利方法。不過，既然有政策支持，自然能夠吸引投資者。

相對內地的市場，香港能投資的相關股份選擇有限。與車聯網有關的公司，首選當時是汽車股，尤其具國企背景的汽車股，如東風（489）、華晨（1114）、長城汽車（2333）等。

除此以外，收費公路股份，如江蘇寧滬高速公路（177）、四川成渝高速公路（107）、深圳高速公路股份（548）、越秀交通（1052）等，畢竟這些股份將受惠車聯網的效益。至於其他地理資訊（GIS）方案、物聯網設備等板塊，還有待發掘

電力汽車難成主流

在全球首輛純電力驅動的汽車即將面世之際，一些令人擔憂的現實開始浮上水面。除了通用汽車（GM）下月推出的電力汽車「Volt」原來並非全電力驅動之外，真正令人擔心的是成本和基建問題。

過去4年，混合動力汽車在美國市場的銷售上升了一倍，佔整體銷量的3%。但利用這個銷售數字作為純電力汽車的銷售預測基礎，未能反映來自完全沒有內燃引擎汽車的挑戰。雷諾日產（Renault-Nissan）行政總裁戈森（Carlos Ghosn）去年預期，到2010年，全球汽車銷售中有10%來自電力汽車，但戴姆勒（Daimler）主席澤謝（Dieter Zetsche）表示，到2010年，混合和電力汽車的銷售將只佔整體銷量的1%至5%。

充電成棘手問題

這是酸葡萄心理嗎？完全不是。澤謝是在中國與內地電力汽車先驅比亞廸（BYD）商討合作可能性時發表這番言論的。市場研究也支持了澤謝的估計。德勤諮詢公司（Deloitte Consulting）進行的一個消費者調查顯示，美國的可能買家中有70%表示，要來往300哩的距離才會購買電力汽車，而幾乎三分之二欠缺家居充電設備。計入這些因素，以及假設電池價格會大跌，該行預期到2020年，電力汽車在美國市場的滲透率只有3.1%。

一個較家居充電理想的模式是效法油站的做法，讓電池可以舊換新，但目前仍沒有可以落實這種做法的標準，而且要做到這一點需投入龐大資金，目前仍未知道美國人是否願意繼續資助初期使用者。

如果電力汽車在10年內達到足以存續下去的水平，最後可能會主導市場，但其走勢將不如廣告所說的那麼強勁。

短期內有必要集資救急

作為「股神」愛股，比亞迪在內地汽車市場的風頭曾經一時無兩，然而，在經銷商集體跳槽、資金鏈長期綳緊等重壓下，光環正迅速失色。昨天公布令人失望的第三季成績表中，不少數據已見風險端倪，情況令人擔心。當中最惹人注目的是資金狀況，短期借貸於3個月內急增23億元（人民幣．下同），較期末手頭現金還要多，總體債務更攀升至86億元之巨。與此同時，確認銷售收入持續增長，但應收賬卻大幅萎縮，情況頗為罕見。有分析員就認為，比亞迪資金不順的情況已頗嚴重，短期內有必要集資救危。

比亞迪此前公布的汽車銷售數據，早已表現不濟，故此市場已預期昨天公布的第三季報告未必會有好消息。但始料不及的是，業績壞得超乎尋常。毛利率由首季的25％急跌至現時的15％，下滑之急令人咋舌，第三季純利更按年勁減99％。

不過，更令市場驚心的，是負債大幅攀升。流動負債中的銀行借貸，至第三季尾升至約57.6億元，較之第二季急增約23億元，比首季的不到7億元，更勁升逾8倍。總體銀行借款，至9月尾已高達86億元。

截至第三季尾，比亞迪的手頭現金及等價物約22億元，與去年同期看齊，然而，期內新增借貸急升，有分析員直言，「若這23億元沒有借到，比亞迪現在的資產負債表中現金一欄，可能已經是負數。」而在借貸持續急增下，比亞迪亦已連續兩個季度錄得「現金項目」減少，第二季減少逾5億元，第三季則減少逾1億元。

另一個惹人注目的數據，是比亞迪銷售持續增長的同時，經營活動淨現金流及應收賬卻不斷減少。比亞迪昨天公布至第三季止，營業額達345億元，按年增加超過三成，然而反映企業資金狀況的經營活動淨現金，卻持續萎縮，由去年同期的87.5億元大減至55.7億元，跌幅達36％。至於應收賬款亦由去年同期的76.9億元，減少至55.7億元，與銷售增長背道而駛。有分析員認為，應收賬急減，其中一個可能原因，是比亞迪催收經銷商款項甚急，故此貨款已提前交付。「若這個推斷屬實，則可反映比亞迪對資金求財若渴的處境。」至於現金流持續萎縮，最大問題可能出自存貨，截至第三季，比亞迪的存貨周轉天數增加至約3個月，較之上半年的約55天大幅增加，反映滯銷問題已頗為嚴重。

比亞迪賺少99％遠遜預期 流動借貸增逾8倍 財政令人憂慮

受累於毛利率劇減及開支暴漲，比亞迪（1211）第三季業績遠遜預期，純利同比大跌99％，至僅1134萬元（人民幣．下同），令預測跌幅平均約五成的分析員跌破眼鏡。業績惡化程度令人意外，昨天比亞迪股價應聲下挫10.3％，創近年最大跌幅，多家大行紛下調目標價。與此同時，公司的流動銀行借貸在半年內大增逾8倍至57.6億元，財務狀況令人憂慮。

毛利率下滑至14.9％

比亞迪第三季汽車銷量逆市大跌近兩成，市場對業績暗淡早有心理準備，只是意料不到如此慘烈，此前分析員預測第三季純利介乎5億元至5.8億元，即比去年同期的11.6億元跌50％至57％。另外，公司首、次季分別賺17.04億元和7.17億元，第三季的環比跌幅亦高達98％。

第三季營業額102.6億元，按季跌11.5％，按年則微升0.3％。不過，由於期內進行促銷，銷售成本比去年同期上漲11％，至87.32億元；毛利則同比下跌52％，至15.25億元。毛利率更由首季的24.5％和次季的18％，持續下滑至第三季的14.9％。

信達國際分析員趙晞文指出，比亞迪早前大削全年銷量目標25％，至60萬輛，但照近期形勢，這目標也難達到，管理層為力谷銷量，向旗下經銷商施加壓力，在第三季推行降價促銷，因此營業額雖然同比微升，但毛利率就遭到犧牲。

大行調低目標價

首三季合計，比亞迪營業額同比增長31％，至345億元；純利微增4％，至24.3億元。期內，公司大力研發電動車及建廠擴產能，導致開支激增，銷售及分銷成本增48.2％，至14.9億元；研究與開發成本增31.5％，至10.3億元；行政開支增31.9％，至14.1億元。

比亞迪近日面對內憂外患，除了業績跌至「蝕錢邊緣」、銀行負債激增、銷量長期慘淡，更加上斥巨資在西安興建的7幢廠房被裁定違規，除了已投入資金付諸流水，還可能要為賠償作撥備，更重要的是，公司視西安廠房為未來產能主力，若要覓址重建，耗時必久，嚴重打亂戰略部署。

儘管如此，比亞迪也有「好消息」沖喜，剛剛宣布與江西賽維太陽能簽署協議，未來兩年將斥資3億美元向後者採購多晶硅，為發展電動車做好準備。

昨天業績出爐後，多家大行紛出報告唱淡並下調比亞迪目標價。瑞信直言比亞迪表現令人失望，汽車銷量大跌源自銷售結構問題，中短期難以扭轉劣勢，前景不容樂觀，維持其評級為跑輸大市，下調目標價至37元，相當於明年預測市盈率15倍，比昨天收市價51.05元低27.5％。德銀和里昂亦分別下調目標價至44.2元和34.15元。

另外，股神畢非德旗下巴郡持有比亞迪10％股權，一手促成巴郡入股比亞迪的華裔投資家、前民運人士李錄昨天宣布，無意成為股神的接班人，未來將不會接掌巴郡。

Geely chief aims high with Volvo

Li now planned to set up three new Volvo plants on the mainland with a combined capacity of 300,000 cars per year, he told The Wall Street Journal in an interview.Li also said he planned to develop more luxury models under the Swedish marque. "Current Volvo cars like the S80 sedan could go up against the BMW 5-series but they have not reached the sophistication of the [more upscale] BMW 7-series or the Mercedes S-Class," Li told the paper." Li now planned to set up three new Volvo plants on the mainland with a combined capacity of 300,000 cars per year, he told The Wall Street Journal in an interview.Li also said he planned to develop more luxury models under the Swedish marque. "Current Volvo cars like the S80 sedan could go up against the BMW 5-series but they have not reached the sophistication of the [more upscale] BMW 7-series or the Mercedes S-Class," Li told the paper.These hugely ambitious targets would kick both the Swedish firm and its Chinese parent company into overdrive, pitting privately held Zhejiang Geely against the likes of Volkswagen's Audi, Daimler's Mercedes-Benz and BMW, the three German carmakers that have come to dominate the increasingly competitive high end of the mainland's roaring vehicle market."Compared to these German companies, Volvo's brand equity is lagging in the mainland market," said one industry analyst who declined to be named. "It is also hard to say whether Chinese consumers would take to buying luxury cars made by a company that is locally owned."Volvo sold only about 17,000 cars in China in the first seven months of this year, up 56 per cent on a low base from a year earlier, according to data from JD Power and Associates. About half of the Swedish brand's sales were imports, the rest were assembled locally from kits by a joint venture between Changan, Ford and Mazda.By contrast, Audi, Mercedes and BMW accounted for nine of the top 10 selling luxury cars in the year so far. Combined sales of the three German brands rose about 74 per cent in the first seven months to more than 271,000 cars.Li's 300,000-car target would be a lot of Volvos for China, and for Zhejiang Geely. Worldwide, Volvo sold only 324,000 cars last year and booked an adjusted pre-tax loss of US$662 million, according to Ford's stock exchange filings. Zhejiang Geely sold 329,000 cars last year under its homegrown Eagle, Maple, Englon and Emgrand brands. Li told the Journal he was considering building new plants to make Volvos in Daqing city in the northeast, Jiading in suburban Shanghai, and would also likely take over an existing car factory in Chengdu, Sichuan province, confirming months of mainland press speculation.The local governments of Daqing, an oil-producing town in Heilongjiang province, and Jiading district together contributed 4 billion yuan (HK$4.6 billion) in financing to help Zhejiang Geely foot the bill for the Volvo buyout, according to Ford's filings to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.Li did not mention a timeline for launching production at the new Volvo plants or say how their construction - which some analysts reckon could cost more than 5 billion yuan - would be funded."
Mainland car tycoon Li Shufu's ambitions come in two sizes - big and bigger. It was a big move when Li's Zhejiang Geely Holding Group bought Volvo from Ford Motor last month for US$1.5 billion in a deal partly financed by local mainland governments. The next step, if Li gets his way, will see Zhejiang Geely making more Volvos in China than Geelys.
Li now planned to set up three new Volvo plants on the mainland with a combined capacity of 300,000 cars per year, he told The Wall Street Journal in an interview.
Li also said he planned to develop more luxury models under the Swedish marque. "Current Volvo cars like the S80 sedan could go up against the BMW 5-series but they have not reached the sophistication of the [more upscale] BMW 7-series or the Mercedes S-Class," Li told the paper.
These hugely ambitious targets would kick both the Swedish firm and its Chinese parent company into overdrive, pitting privately held Zhejiang Geely against the likes of Volkswagen's Audi, Daimler's Mercedes-Benz and BMW, the three German carmakers that have come to dominate the increasingly competitive high end of the mainland's roaring vehicle market.
"Compared to these German companies, Volvo's brand equity is lagging in the mainland market," said one industry analyst who declined to be named. "It is also hard to say whether Chinese consumers would take to buying luxury cars made by a company that is locally owned."
Volvo sold only about 17,000 cars in China in the first seven months of this year, up 56 per cent on a low base from a year earlier, according to data from JD Power and Associates. About half of the Swedish brand's sales were imports, the rest were assembled locally from kits by a joint venture between Changan, Ford and Mazda.
By contrast, Audi, Mercedes and BMW accounted for nine of the top 10 selling luxury cars in the year so far. Combined sales of the three German brands rose about 74 per cent in the first seven months to more than 271,000 cars.
Li's 300,000-car target would be a lot of Volvos for China, and for Zhejiang Geely. Worldwide, Volvo sold only 324,000 cars last year and booked an adjusted pre-tax loss of US$662 million, according to Ford's stock exchange filings. Zhejiang Geely sold 329,000 cars last year under its homegrown Eagle, Maple, Englon and Emgrand brands.
Li told the Journal he was considering building new plants to make Volvos in Daqing city in the northeast, Jiading in suburban Shanghai, and would also likely take over an existing car factory in Chengdu, Sichuan province, confirming months of mainland press speculation.
The local governments of Daqing, an oil-producing town in Heilongjiang province, and Jiading district together contributed 4 billion yuan (HK$4.6 billion) in financing to help Zhejiang Geely foot the bill for the Volvo buyout, according to Ford's filings to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Li did not mention a timeline for launching production at the new Volvo plants or say how their construction - which some analysts reckon could cost more than 5 billion yuan - would be funded.

Devolving Volvo

Ford sells Volvo to Geely

For both buyer and seller, the deal is worth the risks

Mar 28th 2010 | From The Economist online

Reuters

IT TOOK more than a decade for Ford to create what it called its Premier Auto Group around a bunch of classy European brands—starting in 1987 with its purchase of Aston Martin, followed by the acquisitions of Jaguar, Volvo and then Land Rover. It all proved a terribly expensive distraction. Now, it has taken Ford three years of tricky negotiations to dismantle the group, selling the European marques at a considerable loss. Aston Martin went to a British-led consortium in 2007, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) was snapped up by Tata of India in 2008 and, on March 28th, a deal was signed to sell Volvo to Geely, a small but vastly ambitious Chinese carmaker.

The sticker price is $1.8 billion, a fraction of the $6.45 billion that Ford paid for Volvo in 1999. The cost to Ford is worse even than those figures suggest: it has had to support the Swedish carmaker through years of losses and even now it faces further expenses associated with the sale to Geely that will eat up much of the meagre sum it is getting for Volvo.

Unstitching Ford and Volvo will take years

Over the years Volvo's design and production have been closely integrated with Ford's, so much so that it will take years to unstitch them. The sale agreement, which both sides hope to finalise in the third quarter of this year, includes a promise from Ford to continue providing Volvo with such things as engine and powertrain technology for the time being, just as it promised Tata that it would continue to support JLR.

When Geely's interest in Volvo was made public in the middle of last year, there were some doubts about whether Ford would want to take the risk of letting its technology and other intellectual property leak out to a fast-growing Chinese firm that could one day be a serious rival. The announcement of Volvo's sale says "safeguards" have been agreed to stop this happening. But it also says Volvo will be able to sublicense some of Ford's technology to others, including Geely.

Although Volvo represents only a small part of Ford's output, swallowing it will be a big challenge for Geely: last year it sold just 330,000 cars—most of them in China—which is about the same as Volvo sold worldwide. Unlike most big Chinese carmakers, Geely is privately owned and, in recent weeks there had been some doubts about whether it would get the financing needed for the purchase. However, those doubts were dispelled when Chinese state banks (and hence, it is assumed, the government in Beijing) said they would back it.
<< The line between state-owned and public owned companies becomes more blurred in this case as Geely is public owned with no government stake >>

Geely’s chairman and founder, Li Shufu, calls himself the Henry Ford of China. He and his managers like to talk big, promising to increase output to 2m vehicles by 2015. However, Mr Li's talk about entering the European market in 2007 and breaking into North America by the following year proved to have little substance.

The harsh truth is that most cross-border takeovers of carmakers have been disappointments (to name but a few, Daimler and Chrysler, BMW and Rover, and indeed Ford's purchase of Volvo and the other European marques). It will be a remarkable achievement for Geely if it bucks that trend. But for Volvo the deal has several attractions: it will gain access to China's rapidly growing car market; and, if Geely keeps its promises, it will retain its current management and its factories in Sweden and Belgium. Volvo, having lost so much money under Ford's wing, might do better under a more focused and autonomous management. If so, Geely will get a good return on its investment and a jump-start on entering the international market, as well as gaining an attractive range of premium-priced cars to sell at home.

Ford's focus

For Ford, its failed attempt to build a European-led range of premier marques has been a drain of both cash and management time. This is still true of Volvo, even though it is no longer doing as badly as it was in the depths of the economic downturn. Having struggled through the financial crisis without a government bail-out, Ford has the moral high ground over its archrivals, GM and Chrysler. But its noble abjuring of handouts has left it with a weaker balance-sheet than perhaps any of the world's top ten carmakers. The meagre proceeds from the Volvo sale will be little help in themselves, although at least Ford will earn profits from selling key parts to Volvo for the next few years, while being spared from having to pump investment into the Swedish firm. And at least it can say it has been more successful in its European divestments than GM, which struggled to offload Saab and decided in the end not to sell Opel.

Ford's management can now devote more time to greater priorities: rebuilding their core American market; and making progress on a strategy called "One Ford", under which all the company's models worldwide will be built on a small number of common platforms. Success on this is vital if Ford is to adapt to consumers' shift in tastes away from big gas-guzzlers toward smaller cars on which the profit margins are slender.

Unfortunately, the deal does little to solve the motor industry's biggest problem: growing overcapacity, especially in mature markets. Indeed, as with the JLR sale, Ford is handing production capacity to an ambitious emerging-market rival with plans to grow big in Ford's core rich-country markets. That said, neither Volvo nor JLR is big enough to matter much either way in denting Europe's overcapacity.

Perhaps a bigger worry for Ford should be the risk of intellectual property leaking out to Volvo's Chinese buyers. But this risk already exists in the joint ventures Ford has entered into in China with Chang'an, another Chinese manufacturer. Privately, Western motor-industry bosses assume that whatever safeguards have been agreed on paper, some of their technology will leak out to their Chinese business partners. But they see this as a part of the price for doing business in, and with, China. Given the vast growth potential of its market, it is assumed to be a price worth paying.

VW, GM and Peugeot-Citroën - Asian alliances

Dec 9th 2009From The Economist print edition
New ties for VW, GM and Peugeot-Citroën signal a way forward for the car industry

HAVING weathered the storm, the thoughts of global carmakers are now focused on the tie-ups they hope will give them an edge in the upturn. Two such deals, the first involving General Motors and its Chinese partner SAIC, the second between Volkswagen and Suzuki, have been concluded in the past few days. Another, linking PSA Peugeot-Citroën and Mitsubishi, is still under negotiation. All three are aimed at winning a bigger presence in Asia and tapping into low-cost manufacturing expertise, while sharing components and development budgets.
Of the three, the most significant is Volkswagen’s announcement on Wednesday December 9th that it has agreed to pay $2.5 billion for 19.9% of Suzuki, a family-owned Japanese maker of small cars and motorcycles. Along with Fiat, Suzuki is the only international outfit that knows how to make money out of small, inexpensive cars. That is something VW forgot long ago. But it needs to relearn it, argues Max Warburton of Bernstein, as asset-management firm, if it is not to suffer from the worldwide trend towards downsizing, as new emissions laws bite and growth shifts to poorer consumers in emerging markets.

The other thing Suzuki offers is unique exposure to emerging markets. Through its 54% stake in Maruti Suzuki, it has managed to keep more than 40% of the increasingly competitive Indian market. It also has a strong position in Pakistan and Indonesia, two other teeming countries with nascent car markets. VW, which is the market leader in China and has around a quarter of the Brazilian market, was uncharacteristically late setting out its stall in India, where it only began manufacturing this year. If the alliance blossoms, and VW ends up turning Suzuki into its 11th brand, it will have taken a big step towards its long-term goal of overtaking Toyota as the world’s biggest car firm.
The deal between GM and SAIC to set up a 50:50 joint venture to produce small cars in India, announced on December 4th, is another sign of the times. GM will contribute the factories and distribution network it already owns in India; SAIC will invest up to $350m in cash and other assets. The plan gives China’s biggest carmaker a foothold in the second-fastest-growing car market in the world (after China), while helping cash-strapped GM to mount a more vigorous push into India, where it has struggled for several years to reach its target of a 10% market share. GM and SAIC are also intending to bring to India the ultra-cheap micro-cars, minivans and pickups they make with another Chinese partner, Wuling.
At the same time, GM said that it was ceding control of its successful joint venture with SAIC in China by selling a 1% stake to the Chinese firm for $85m. With a 51% shareholding , SAIC will have the right to approve budgets and all senior appointments. Nick Reilly, the architect of GM’s Asian strategy who was recently appointed boss of Opel/Vauxhall, insisted that the sale was merely a technicality to allow SAIC to consolidate its earnings from the venture. Some observers interpret it as the price for getting SAIC’s help in India. Others detect the beginning of a trend whereby Chinese car manufacturers will assert greater authority over their Western and Japanese partners. Mr Reilly merely said that GM had agreed in order to get SAIC’s “full co-operation and the full co-operation of the Chinese government in other things.”
PSA’s negotiations to buy between 30% and 50% of Mitsubishi, which has several times been close to bankruptcy and is still carrying a heavy burden of debt, have some way to go. The two firms have had ties for several years: Peugeot and Citroën sell a rebranded version of Mitsubishi’s Outlander crossover (somewhere between a car and an SUV) and PSA shares a factory with Mitsubishi in Russia. Mitsubishi, with its presence in Asia and its network of factories and dealers in America, could help the French group reduce its reliance on Europe. But cultural clashes have bedevilled such cross-border deals in the past. And PSA, whose automotive business has junk-rated debts of $3 billion, may have difficulty finding the $3.5-4 billion that a 50% stake in the Japanese firm is likely to cost.

China's car market - Exhaust fumes and mirrors

Nov 26th 2009 SHANGHAIFrom The Economist print edition
Car sales up, petrol sales flat: stockpiling, fuel-efficiency, or simply lousy data?

IN JANUARY sales of vehicles in China surpassed those in America. Passenger-car sales have grown by around 45% this year. Yet sales of petrol have failed to keep pace (see chart). Attempts to explain this baffling phenomenon come up with widely differing answers, in part because the data present problems at every turn. It is not known for sure, for example, how many cars are being sold by dealers to their final owners; nor how much petrol is being sold at the pump. The car-scrappage rate is also obscure, so the growth of China’s total passenger-car stock is hard to calculate. When it comes to questions of consumer behaviour, such as distances travelled by car owners and how these are affected by petrol prices, tolls or other costs, the guesswork multiplies.
By the end of October sales of passenger cars from factories to dealers this year had reached 8.2m. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a consultancy, estimates that this could mean an increase in the total number of passenger cars in use of between 20% and 25%. Petrol sales are hard to quantify. But partial data from the first nine months suggest there has been hardly any increase.
One dramatic explanation has been proposed by Gordon Chang, an author and longtime doomsayer on China. Mr Chang wrote in October in Forbes magazine of what he admitted were unconfirmed reports that central-government officials had ordered state-owned enterprises to buy cars, which had then simply been stored in car parks.
Stephen Green of Standard Chartered, a bank, offers a more prosaic explanation. People are buying more fuel-efficient cars, he suggests, and are using their cars less because of high fuel prices. Much of the growth in car sales this year has been encouraged by tax cuts on sales of small cars, which use less fuel. And Mr Green says petrol is 20% dearer than it was two years ago, creating a “powerful reason to drive less”. Mr Kroeber says that uncertainties remain even after taking account of these factors, and the figures were inconsistent even when gas-guzzlers were more common. But he rejects Mr Chang’s theory. “It’s just a reflection that China is a big and chaotic place” rife with incomplete data, he says.